Oil soars on OPEC deal prospects but could still be volatile
19:00, 29 November 2016
· By CMC Markets
Traders around the world have their eyes on Vienna waiting for details on the results of today’s production negotiations between OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Comments following morning talks have been optimistic. Reports have tossed around all kinds of numbers this morning, including:
The total cut could rise to 1.4 million barrels a day (mmbbld) up from the 1.2 mmbbld cut agreed to in September
OPEC could cap is production at 32.5 mmbbld about a 1 mmbbld cut
Non OPEC producers could cut up to 0.6 mmbbls
Russia has been rumoured to be prepared to cut 0.4 mmbbld up from freeze only expectations but Russia has since called that number “a bit excessive”
Iran and Iraq remain sticking points. Apparently Iraq is willing to cut
Iran doesn’t want to cut production although there are reports some kind of alternate arrangement may be made to bring Iran on board.
So far traders have taken these reports as positive sending oil prices screaming over 7% upward with Brent taking a run at $50.00 and WTI up from $45.00 toward $48.00. It looks encouraging overall but traders should note that negotiations continue, nothing is final and a lot can change. How a final arrangement (or lack of one) differs from current expectations could still drive big trading swings today in either direction not only in oil prices but also in oil sensitive markets including currencies like CAD, NOK, RUB and MXN plus energy stocks. Energy sector trading could impact swings in the FTSE and the Canadian S&P/TSX.
In other news, US index futures and the Dax are trading up 0.1% today. The FTSE’s higher weighting in energy stocks has propelled it to a 0.8% gain so far. In currency action today, oil currencies are dominating with RUB up 2.1%, NOK up 0.75% and CAD up 0.5%. The loonie may also be impacted by today’s Canadian GDP report. Today we find out whether the big summer bounce in the Canadian economy the Bank of Canada has been hoping for materialized or not. The result could have provide a strong indication of how much pressure the Bank of Canada is under to cut interest rates next week. The street is expecting to see 1.8% growth for September and 3.4% growth for the quarter up from a 1.6% decline in Q2. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz indicated earlier this week that an upturn in the service sector may be a key driver of growth in Canada going forward.
It’s potentially a big day for trading in Canada. On top of the oil price action and key GDP figures, another round of bank earnings are out today. Yesterday’s big beat by the Bank of Nova Scotia yesterday was offset by a big miss at the Royal Bank of Canada today so the banking sector could be active. UK banks are also active on the publication of UK stress test results which Royal Bank of Scotland failed and Barclay’s had a capital deficiency in one area.
Today is also a big day for US news with ADP payrolls and Chicago PMI providing an initial indication of how the US economy is performing following the election and a preview of the national PMI and nonfarm payrolls numbers due later in the week. This could impact US Dollar trading and Fed expectations. While a December hike still looks like a done deal, the number of potential hikes in 2017 remains an open question that could impact dollar trading.