North America Trading Outlook for the week of April 9, 2017

It’s a short week but still a busy one for economic news. Markets are closed Friday for the Good Friday holiday. US nonfarm payrolls came in way below expectations at 98K. Reasons for the decline for the shortfall have ranged from bad weather to store closures, to the US nearing full employment (running out of jobs to fill). The Unemployment rate fell to 4.5% suggesting full employment which has the US trading higher than it was before the report came out. Canada jobs remained strong boosting the Loonie heading into this week’s Bank of Canada meeting. A rate cut remains unlikely with Canada’s economy doing well. Traders may focus instead on whether Governor Poloz keeps the door open to a rate cut on concerns about NAFRA renegotiation or if he jumps into the debate about what to do about the Greater Toronto Housing Bubble. The coming week could start off with continuing reaction to the message sent by the US missile attack on Syria and the Trump-Xi summit. Oil has been up and down since the strike but gold has gone up and stayed at a higher level indicating that this move has elevated political uncertainty overall. This has sent a message to Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and others that Trump isn’t going to be the doormat Obama was. Earnings season in the US kicks off on Thursday with results from three big banks, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. Financials have been one of the sectors that has benefitted the most from the Trump trade. These results could give the first indication of whether bank earnings can support their higher market valuations. Economic news (North America time): Monday FOMC Yellen speaking Tuesday UK inflation Tuesday evening China inflation Wednesday Bank of Canada 0.50% no change expected UK employment Wednesday evening Australia employment China trade balance NZ PMI, food prices Thursday US producer prices, consumer sentiment Friday US consumer prices, retail sales Earnings Reports: Thursday Morning JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo

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