US markets finished a quiet day flat. Traders remain focused on President Trump’s speech to Congress tomorrow night. While indices remain technically overextended, exhausted and overdue for a correction, nobody wants to seem to want to stand in front of this freight train and holders don’t seem to want to take profits ahead of the news either. Reports through the day suggest a big statement on infrastructure depending may be coming along with a big increase in military spending. The big question is whether it will be enough to satisfy the markets, or could to spark profit taking? The rally in recent weeks suggests incredibly high expectations and one has to wonder if an event that is usually about broad brush strokes will be able to deliver enough detail to satisfy the street.
We still have a full round the world day of trading ahead of the big speech and it’s month end so we could see some portfolio adjustments. Asia Pacific trading could centre around this month’s main basket of Japanese economic reports which may indicate how much pressure the Bank of Japan is under to keep full on QQE going. New Zealand trade and business survey numbers could spark interest in NZD as well.
Tuesday morning brings a number of GDP report headlined by the US but also including France, which could impact election sentiment, and India. US regional reports may have some influence including the Chicago PMI, while the core PCE inflation figure could impact Fed rate hike speculation and the USD, a figure moving toward 2.0% could be seen as hawkish, the street is expecting it to remain steady at 1.3%
Corporate News
There have been no major announcements after the US close today.
Economic News
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US durable goods orders 1.8% vs street 1.6%, prev rev down to (0.8%) from (0.5%)
US durables ex transport (0.2%) vs street 0.5%, prev rev up to 0.9% from 0.5%
US capital goods nondefense ex air (0.6%) vs street 0.2%, prev rev up to 1.6% from 1.0%
US pending home sales 2.7% vs previous (2.0%)
US Dallas Fed 24.5 vs street 19.4
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
8:45 am AEDT NZ trade balance street ($25M)
11:00 am AEDT NZ ANZ activity outlook previous 39.6
11:00 am AEDT NZ ANZ business confidence previuos 21.7
10:50 am AEDT Japan industrial production street 4.3% vvs previous 3.2%
10:50 am AEDT Japan retail sales street 1.0% vs previous 0.6%
4:00 pm AEDT Japan housing starts street 3.2%
4:00 pm AEDT Japan construction orders previous 7.1%
7:45 am GMT France consumer prices street 1.5 vs previous 1.3%
7:45 am GMT France GDP street 1.1%
12:00 pm GMT India GDP street 6.0% vs previous 7.3%
8:30 am EST US Q4 GDP update street 2.1% vs previous 1.9%
8:30 am EST US Q4 personal consumption street 2.6%
8:30 am EST US Q4 core PCE inflation street 1.3%
8:30 am EST US advance goods trade bal street ($66.0B)
8:30 am EST Canada industrial prices street 0.5%
8:30 am EST Canada raw material prices street 1.2% vs previous 6.5%
9:45 am EST US Chicago PMI street 53.5 vs previous 50.3
10:00 am EST US consumer confidence street 111.0
10:00 am EST US Richmond Fed street 10 vs previous 12
3:00 pm EST FOMC Harker speaking
3:30 pm EST FOMC Williams speaking
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