It didn’t take long for USD to ignore last week’s soft payroll numbers and resume its march higher. First, Traders may be discounting the results as a summer distortion with people on vacation, especially with the wide discrepancy between ADP and nonfarm payrolls raising the potential for a revision next month. More importantly, it appears increasingly that the US may be the only country in a position to raise interest rates any time soon. GBP took a big tumble and fell out of the running to be first to raise rates after the Yes side in a Scottish Independence poll took a 51% share with only 10 days to go before next Thursday’s vote. For the next two week’s at least, changing political risk and the winds of opinion are more likely to drive swings in GBP, the FTSE and Scottish banks more than monetary policy trends. UK data such as tomorrow’s reports may end up being lost in the shuffle with the vote taking all of the attention now that traders have been shocked out of complacency. In the US, meanwhile, with a very light news calendar put stocks basically on hold for the day, although energy stocks fell along with the oil price which took a big hit along with gold. Gold fell on word that there has been more ETF and fund liquidation of positions lately. The crude selloff which took Brent under $100.00 for part of the day appears to be due to a combination of USD strength and soft Chinese imports announced yesterday. Grains were under the most pressure on a combination of falling risks the Ukraine harvest may be disrupted combined with signs of good crop conditions in the US. Today’s Asia Pacific news calendar is pretty light outside of Australia. Copper has been active and today’s action may indicate whether the street is more interested in China’s strong headline trade balance and export figures or worried about the decline in imports. We may also see whether the Hang Seng and China A50 are ripe for a correction or still able to hold on to recent gains. Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: This week’s crop report indicates overall conditions are about the same or a lot better than last year: Corn 74% good/excellent vs 54% last year Soybeans 72% good/excellent vs 52% last year Cotton 49% good/excellent vs 45% last year Spring Wheat 60% good/excellent Germany trade balance €23.4B vs street €16.8B UK house prices 9.7% vs street 10.0% Upcoming significant announcements include: 11:30 am AEST Australia NAB business confidence previous 11 11:30 am AEST Australia NAB business conditions previous 8 11:30 am AEST Australia home loans street 1.0% 3:00 pm AEST Japan consumer confidence street 42.3 12:00 am BST UK same store sales street 0.3% 9:30 am BST UK trade balance street (£2.3B) 9:30 am BST UK industrial production street 1.3% 9:30 am BST UK manufacturing production street 2.2% 10:00 am BST Greece industrial production previous (6.7%) 3:00 pm BST UK GDP estimate previous 0.6% 8:15 am EST Canada housing starts street 195K