Gold plunge drags resource stocks downward, JPY falls Bank of Japan becomes a lonesome dove
19:00, 03 October 2016
· By CMC Markets
Gold seized the spotlight for all the wrong reasons staging a 3% plunge off a cliff that accelerated after the $1,300 level was breached. A number of factors combined to drive gold lower including rallies in USD and EUR, a reduced need for stimulus with Brexit and Deutsche Bank fears blowing over and perhaps speculation the gold rally earlier this year could dampen jewellery demand. The gold plunge sent mining stocks into a nosedive sending the S&P/TSX in Canada to a 1.25% loss relative to the 0.5% drop in the Dow. This could potentially put pressure on resource stocks in Australia today.
USD advanced on renewed speculation following comments from regional Fed Presidents Mester and Lacker, both well-known hawks. The higher dollar and potential for less easy money weighed on US indices which underperformed their European counterparts.
In Europe the FTSE was the top performer gaining 1.3% boosted by another Brexit related selloff in the pound and a pickup back above 50 into expansion territory for UK construction PMI.
EUR rallied as well today particularly against GBP and JPY as reports circulated suggesting the ECB is considering tapering back QE purchases as the Fed did when it wound down its asset purchases over the course of 2014. If this happens, it would leave the Bank of Japan as the only major pedal to the metal dovish central bank with more stimulus from the Bank of England less likely as Sterling slides. Both EUR and USD staged big breakouts against JPY today.
Wednesday's ADP payrolls and Friday's nonfarm payrolls may drive more FOMC speculation trading. Even if one side were to open up a big lead in US election polling, December still looks more likely for an increase than the November meeting a week before the vote.
Crude oil paused to consolidate recent gains Tuesday then picked up late in the day on another big API inventory drawdown this time by 7.6 mmbbls. Oil and other energy contracts along with energy stocks may remain active through Wednesday’s DOE inventory reports.
There have been no major announcements after the US close today
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US API crude oil inventories (7.6 mmbbls)
UK construction PMI 52.3 vs street 49.0 vs previous 49.2
US ISM New York 49.6 vs previous 47.5
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
7:00 pm EDT FOMC Evans speaking
9:00 pm EDT US Vice-Presidential Debate
12:00 am BST UK BRC shop prices previous (2.0%)
11:00 am AEDT NZ ANZ commodity prices previous 3.2%
11:30 am AEDT Australia retail sales street 0.2%
8:30 am BST Sweden industrial production street 0.5%
10:00 am BST Eurozone retail sales street 1.5%
8:15 am EDT US ADP Payrolls street 165K vs previous 177K
8:30 am EDT US trade balance street ($39.2B)
8:30 am EDT Canada trade balance street ($2.4B)
9:30 am EDT FOMC Kashkari speaking
10:00 am EDT US Factory Orders street (0.2%) vs previous 1.9%
10:30 am EDT US DOE crude oil inventories street 1.5 mmbbls
10:30 am EDT US DOE gasoline inventories street 0.5 mmbbls
Service PMI Reports:
9:30 am AEDT Australia previous 45.0
11:30 am AEDT Singapore Nikkei previous 52.3
11:30 am AEDT Japan Nikkei previous 49.6
4:00 pm AEDT India Nikkei previous 54.7
9:30 am BST UK street 52.2
8:55 am BST Germany street 50.6
8:50 am BST France street 54.1
8:45 am BST Italy street 52.0
8:15 am BST Spain street 54.6
7:30 am BST Sweden street 55.0
9:45 am EDT US Markit street 51.9
10:00 am EDT US ISM street 53.0 vs previous 51.4