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FX analysis

Euro dollar faces ongoing pressure amid escalating geopolitical tension

euro dollar

Russia is not the only country that is suffering from the sanctions, the EU stocks and the Eurodollar all had a month-long drop amid the escalating geopolitical unrest. While the European Union heavily relies on Russia’s energy exports, the shortage of supply and inflation could dampen the region’s economy further, which badly weakens investment confidence.

At the same time, the commodity export countries, such as Australia, Canada, and New Zealand are on the track of a fast economic recovery path from the pandemic era. Sarcastically, the soaring commodity prices resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are lifting the local currencies and booming the exporting-backed economies.

In the forex markets, the one-side decline in the cross pairs for the EUR against these commodity currencies provides ongoing indications for the markets trends.

EUR/AUD- Daily

  • A double top pattern defines the pair is still in the downtrend, with MACD’s bearish crossover of the zero line.
  • The potential imminent support is at 1.5286, the low seen on February 24, then 1.51 (Fib. 100.00%)
  • The key potential medium resistance is at 1.5578, defined by the neckline of the double top pattern.

EUR/CAD - Daily

  • The long-term downtrend is intact, with the imminent support at yesterday’s low at 1.4090, then 1.4060.
  • In the condition of breaking down the imminent support, the medium-term target is 1.3708 (Fib. Ext. 100.00%).
  • The key resistance can be defined by the 50-day MA and 100-day MA, at 1.4380.

EUR/NZD - Daily

  • With MACD is crossing down the zero line, the bearish momentum of the pair is still in place. The next potential is 1.6343 (Fib 78.60%), then 1.6067 (the low in November 2021).
  • A potential rebounding might be near as RSI is falling to close the oversold territory. The near-term resistance is at 1.6560 (Fib 61.80%)


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