The last day of the quarter has seen mixed trading around the world, but the tone in North American has been decidedly negative with traders more interested in taking money off the table than opening new positions. US indices tried to shake off yesterday’s declines but weren’t able to get very far. After the close of European indices which benefitted from speculation on ECB stimulus and a monkey wrench in Catalan referendum plans, US indices have dropped into the red led downward by the Russell 2000 a sign that downward breadth is growing. There are a ton of economic reports due over the next 24 hours, many of which could have a significant impact on sentiment and trading. The main underlying theme of all the action appears likely to be framed by speculation on what the data means for monetary policy going forward. Australia – PMI, retail sales, and commodity prices may give an indication of how much pressure the RBA is under to step up its campaign to talk the dollar down and potentially intervene in AUD trading as the RBNZ has done lately. (as an aside, NZD appears to be washed out and stabilizing) Japan – What do the Tankan survey and PMI mean for the Bank of Japan’s stimulus program? Yesterday’s better than expected employment and retail sales took some of the pressure off the central bank to do more, helping JPY to stabilize and knocking the Nikkei back. China markets are closed for the National Day holiday, but PMI and protest activity could influence trading in the markets that are open. Europe – Manufacturing PMI from across the Eurozone provide the last big data points indicating how much pressure the ECB may be under at its meeting on Thursday to get more aggressive as it launches its QE plans. On Tuesday, part of the index rally and EUR selloff was driven by weak German employment and Eurozone inflation reports that increased the pressure on the ECB to take decisive stimulus steps now. UK – PMI could be distorted by the recent Scotland vote, honeymoon effect of the No victory appears to be fading. US – USD and indices have been drifting lower through the day after Chicago PMI and consumer confidence came in a bit below expectations but not enough for Fed hawks to change their minds. ADP payrolls and manufacturing PMI may give traders a better idea of whether economic momentum has continued into September and what this may mean for the Fed who is expected to wrap up QE3 at the end of October. Canada – CAD came under pressure following a soft Canadian GDP report and selloff in WTI Bank of Canada not under pressure to do anything either way but CAD could be active depending on how PMI fares relative to the US. Energy markets also look to be active again. Both WTI and Brent crude plunged today on indications of increased supply from OPEC. Wednesday’s US inventories may indicate whether demand has been strong enough to sop that up or not. Natural gas, meanwhile, appears to be breaking out of a seasonal base as home heating season approaches. Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: US Chicago PMI street 62.0 US consumer confidence street 92.5 Canada July GDP 2.5% vs street 2.8% Canada industrial prices 0.2% vs street (0.2%) Canada raw material prices (2.2%) vs street (1.5%) Germany retail sales 2.5% vs street 0.3% Germany unemployment change 12K vs street (2k) Germany unemployment rate 6.7% as expected Norway retail sales 0.6% vs street 0.8% Italy unemployment rate 12.3% vs street 12.6% UK GDP update 3.2% as expected UK Nationwide house prices 9.4% vs street 10.4% Eurozone unemployment rate 11.5% as expected Eurozone core consumer prices 0.7% vs street 0.9% Upcoming significant announcements include: 9:30 am AEST Australia PMI previous 47.3 9:50 am AEST Japan Tankan large manufacturers street 10 vs previous 12 10:00 am AEST Australia house prices previous 1.1% 10:00 am AEST South Korea PMI 11:00 am AEST China PMI street 51.0 11:30 am AEST Australia retail sales street 0.4% 11:35 am AEST Japan PMI previous 51.7 3:00 pm AEST Japan vehicle sales previous (5.0%) 3:00 pm AEST India PMI previous 52.4 4:30 pm AEST Australia commodity index previous (11.5%) 11:30 pm AEST Singapore PMI previous 49.7 7:30 am BST Sweden PMI street 51.4 8:00 am BST Norway PMI street 51.0 8:15 am BST Spain PMI street 52.6 8:45 am BST Italy PMI street 49.5 8:50 am BST France PMI street 48.8 8:55 am BST Germany PMI street 50.3 9:00 am BST Greece PMI previous 50.1 9:00 am BST Eurozone PMI street 50.5 9:30 am BST UK PMI street 52.7 10:00 am BST South Africa PMI street 50.1 8:15 am EDT US ADP payrolls street 205K 9:00 am EDT Brazil PMI previous 50.2 9:30 am EDT Canada PMI previous 54.8 9:45 am EDT US Markit PMI street 57.9 10:00 am EDT US ISM PMI street 58.5 10:00 am EDT US construction spending street 0.5% 10:30 am EDT US crude oil inventories street 1.5 mmbbls