Crude oil collapse and a busy Black Friday coming up
The main story today has been the big plunge in crude oil prices. Although OPEC decision to do nothing had been speculated in recent days and had already pushed prices down, the actual announcement sparked another big wave of traders heading for the door. The selloff may have been exacerbated by the fact that US traders were off on holiday leaving trading thin in WTI.
Oil markets may remain volatile over the next few days as the US being closed means that margin calls have not gone out yet which could trigger another round of forced selling. At some point bargain hunters may step in but who knows when, Friday, they appear to be more likely to be shopping for deals in the stores more than in the markets.
Meanwhile trading may also be active in other markets around the world through to the weekend. It’s the last day of the month, and there is a ton of news due from everywhere but the US. Japan kicks things off with its monthly basket of indicators which may attract particular attention since this is the last big round of data for the country ahead of next month’s election. Indications of whether the economy is slowing or stabilizing could have a big impact on trading in JPY pairs and the Nikkei.
Tomorrow morning, focus turns to Europe with data due from a number of countries. Most important, however, may be the Eurozone unemployment and inflation reports which may indicate how much pressure the ECB is under to do more about stimulus at next week’s meeting, or if it can hold off until 2015. This could have a significant impact on trading in EUR pairs.
Canada has been active today with the selloff in crude oil dragging on both the S&P/TSX and CAD. In addition to the ongoing crude oil influence, CAD trading may also react to Friday’s Canadian GDP and producer price data.
Last but not least, we could see more trading interest in gold heading into Sundays Swiss referendum on proposed changes to the Swiss National Bank’s policy toward its gold holdings.
All this then sets the stage for next week’s big kickoff to December with PMI reports, central bank meetings and North American reports on the way.
There are no major corporate developments today.
OPEC oil production decision 30 mmbbl/day unchanged
Germany unemployment chnge (14K) vs street (1K)
Germany unemployment rate 6.6% vs street 6.7%
Germany consumer prices 0.6% vs previous 0.8%
Spain GDP 1.6% as expected
Spain consumer prices (0.4%) vs street (0.3%)
Upcoming significant announcements include:
8:45 am AEDT NZ building permits previous (12.2%)
11:00 am AEDT NZ ANZ activity outlook previous 37.8
11:00 am AEDT Japan business confidence previous 26.5
10:30 am AEDT Japan unemployment rate street 3.6%
10:30 am AEDT Japan consumer prices street 3.0%
10:50 am AEDT Japan retail sales street 1.4%
10:50 am AEDT Japan industrial production street (1.7%)
3:00 pm AEDT Japan vehicle production previous (2.6%)
7:00 am GMT UK Nationwide house prices street 8.6%
8:00 am GMT Spain retail sales street 2.0%
8:30 am GMT Sweden GDP street 2.3%
9:00 am GMT Norway unemployment rate street 2.7%
9:00 am GMT Norway retail sales street 0.4%
9:00 am GMT Italy unemployment rate street 12.6%
10:00 am GMT Greece GDP previous 1.4%
10:00 am GMT Greece retail sales street 4.8%
10:00 am GMT Eurozone unemployment rate street 11.5%
10:00 am GMT Eurozone consumer prices street 0.3%
10:00 am GMT Eurozone core CPI street 0.7%
6:00 am EST Brazil GDP street (0.2%) vs previous (0.9%)
7:00 am EST India GDP street 5.1%
8:30 am GDP Canada Sept GDP street 2.2%
8:30 am GDP Canada Q3 GDP street 2.1%
8:30 am GDP Canada industrial prices street (0.4%)
8:30 am GDP Canada raw material prices street (2.5%)