tock markets overseas have been rising overnight, boosted by generally better than expected service PMI reports. The Nikkei and Hang Seng rose 0.4%, while in Europe, the FTSE is up 0.9% outpacing the Dax’s 0.5% gain to the upside as traders increasingly discount cries of impending Brexit doom from people like UK Remain leaders Cameron and Osborne plus German Chancellor Merkel as overblown hyperbole amid a very close race. Interestingly the Wall Street Journal apparently has suggested today that if voters elect for a UK-EU divorce they should make it quick to reduce uncertainty and move on a point likely shared by many market participants.
US index futures are flat this morning ahead of today’s US nonfarm payrolls is one of the last major data reports before the big Fed interest rate decision on June 15th. Yesterday, Dallas Fed President Kaplan continued the trend of Fed speakers hinting toward a rate hike at the June or July meeting which has essentially been priced in by stocks and USD.
The street is expecting payrolls to increase by 160K the same as last month. ADP payrolls rose by 173K as expected with a 10K upward revision to last month. I think the Verizon strike could have a distortive effect on payrolls so I’m thinking 145K with a 10K upward revision to last month. I think it would take a major miss like below 100K to knock the Fed off course and a big spike like 300K plus to get them to consider more than 2 hikes this year.
Other aspects of the payrolls report to watch include the unemployment rate which is expected to come in at 4.9%, and average hourly earnings which are expected at 2.5%. 2% plus growth in wages could keep the pressure on the Fed to raise rates soon to keep from falling behind the curve on inflation.
Comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard later in the morning could have just as significant an impact on Fed speculation as nonfarm payrolls. She is the most dovish of the permanent voting governors. With another noted dove, Chicago Fed President Evans, suggesting 2 rate hikes this year could be appropriate, Governor Brainard’s speech could be seen as the Fed doves’ last stand. It would be too much of a leap to expect her to jump on the hawkish bandwagon, but neutral comments similar to those made by FOMC Chair Yellen last Friday would suggest limited opposition to a pending interest rate increase
Commodities are up overnight with copper surging 1.9% and crude oil consolidating yesterday’s rebound near $50.00 for Brent and WTI. Service PMI reports indicated an accelerating global economy with Japan, Australia and Singapore all climbing back above 50 and China down only marginally. The UK, Spain and Sweden put up better than expected service PMI reports in Europe while Sweden also reported strong industrial production sending SEK to the top of the leader board on a day major currencies have been quiet waiting for the US news.
Commodity action could have a positive impact on mining and energy stocks in Canada and elsewhere today. Other upcoming news that could have an impact (confirming or offsetting nonfarm payrolls) includes US and Canada trade reports, US factory orders and US service/nonmanufacturing PMI.
There have been no major corporate announcements so far this morning.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Japan labour cash earnings 0.3% vs street 0.9% vs previous 1.4%
NZ ANZ commodity prices 1.0% vs previous (0.8%)
Sweden industrial production 3.5% vs street 2.5%
Norway unemployment rate 2.9% vs previous 3.1%
Eurozone retail sales 1.4% vs street 2.1%
Service PMI reports:
Australia 51.5 vs previous 49.7
China Caixin 51.2 vs previous 50.8
Japan Nikkei 50.4 vs previous 48.9
Singapore Nikkei 50.1 vs previous 49.4
India Nikkei 51.0 vs previous 53.7
UK 53.5 vs street 52.3
Germany 55.2 as expected
France 51.6 vs street 51.8
Spain 55.4 vs street 54.0
Italy 49.8% vs street 51.5
Sweden 54.4 vs street 52.6
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
8:30 am EDT US nonfarm payrolls street 160K
8:30 am EDT US nonfarm payrolls revision previous 160K
8:30 am EDT US private payrolls street 150K
8:30 am EDT US unemployment rate street 4.9%
8:30 am EDT US average hourly earnings street 2.5%
8:30 am EDT US trade balance street ($41.0B)
8:30 am EDT Canada trade balance street ($2.5B)
9:45 am EDT US Markit service PMI street 51.4%
10:00 am EDT US ISM non-manufacturing PMI street 55.3
10:00 am EDT US factory orders street 1.9%
3:45 am EDT FOMC Evans speaking
12:30 pm EDT FOMC Brainard speaking
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