t’s been another light day for news in Europe and North America, so China’s economy has continued to attract the most attention from traders around the world heading into today’s big announcements. Continuing the “bad news for the economy is bad news for stocks” theme, yesterday’s soft China inflation figures suggested that the PBOC may need to ease more to prop up the economy and fight deflation, sending indices lower.
European bourses managed to climb their way back into the green as EUR fell on growing political uncertainty with the UK presenting its formal list of demand and Portugal’s austerity government falling in a parliamentary vote to an alliance of euroskeptic and anti-austerity parties. The FTSE lagged behind on uncertainty over whether the UK’s demands will be met and increased focus on next year’s Brexit referendum.
US markets finished the day flat, suggesting that markets have finally priced in Friday’s nonfarm payrolls surprise and the potential for a more hawkish Fed.
Currency markets have also been relatively steady today with CAD and NOK outperforming as they catch a tailwind from a rebound in crude oil prices. Grains have been getting hammered, with wheat and corn losing over 2% and soybeans about 1.3% on rising stockpiles.
Late in the day, crude oil has taken a sharp turn south as API inventories jumped significantly. DOE inventories aren’t out until Thursday because of the Remembrance Day/Veterans Day holiday tomorrow.
China’s retail sales and industrial production reports may have a big impact on trading today with traders looking for signs of whether the economy is stabilizing or struggling. Tomorrow’s UK employment may be assessed for more insight into why the Bank of England took a dovish turn in tone last week.
There have been no major announcements after the US close today.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US API crude oil inventories 6.3 mmbbls vs previous 2.8 mmbbls
UK BRC same store sales (0.2%) vs street 0.8% vs previous 2.6%
Norway consumer prices 2.5% vs street 2.3%
Italy industrial production 1.7% vs street 1.4%
Greece consumer prices (0.9%) vs previous (1.7%)
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
9:00 pm EST US Republican Presidential debate
8:30 am AEDT Australia consumer confidence previous 97.8
4:30 pm AEDT China retail sales street 10.9%
4:30 pm AEDT China industrial production street 5.8%
4:30 pm AEDT China fixed assets street 10.2%
5:00 pm AEDT China Bloomberg monthly GDP previous 6.55%
7:00 am GMT Sweden unemployment rate street 4.1%
9:30 am GMT UK jobless claims street 1.4K
9:30 am GMT UK rolling 3m jobs change street 120K
9:30 am GMT UK unemployment rate street 5.4%
9:30 am GMT UK average weekly earnings street 3.2%
1:15 pm GMT ECB President Draghi speaking
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