Another big day for trading is underway. Major indices have come under pressure with the UK 100, NDAQ 100 and Germany 30 all breaking down. Meanwhile in currencies, USD continues to decline with AUD breaking out as one of the main beneficiaries along with EUR and GBP. Interestingly, JPY which has been underperforming lately has bounced back a bit ahead of today’s basket of Japanese economic reports.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 failed to hold above 5,800, keeping the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top intact, and has turned downward again, falling toward 5,755 with next potential support near 5,740 a Fibonacci level then 5,675 and the 200-day average near 5,648.
Japan 225 is breaking down today, taking out an uptrend line and the 20,000 round number on its way down from 20,240. Initial support has emerged near 19,860 with more possible near 19,755 where the 50-day average and a 23% Fibonacci retracement converge. RSI testing 50 where a breakdown would confirm a downturn in momentum.
Hong Kong 50 faltered short of 26,000 again and has rolled over, sliding back toward 25,800. RSI nearing 50 indicates a downturn pending. Next potential support near 25,700 then 25,495.
North American and European Indices
US 30 turned decisively downward, adding on to a recent Evening star with a Bearish Engulfing day. The index dropped from 21,500 toward 21,200 before bouncing back toward 21,325. RSI falling toward 50 indicates upward momentum fading and a downturn nearing. Next potential support near 21,105 where a 23% Fibonacci retracement converges with the 50-day average
US SPX 500 continues to roll over, falling from 2,445 toward a test of its 50-day average near 2,410 then bouncing toward 2,420. RSI breaking under 50 signals momentum turning downward. Next potential support near 2,400 then 2,380.
US NDAQ 100 continues to roll over with resistance falling from a lower high near 5,770 toward 5,700 and the index testing 5,600 before rebounding toward 5,660. RSI breaking under 50 confirms momentum turning downward. Next potential support near 5,585 a 23% retracement level then 5,500.
UK 100 is breaking down today, taking out 7,400 to complete a head and shoulders top. RSI falling away from 50 confirms momentum turning increasingly downward. Next potential support near 7,300 then a measured 7,200.
Germany 30 is accelerating downward today. After confirming the broken uptrend line near 12,695 and 50 on the RSI as resistance, the index plunged down through its 50-day average then 12,500 on its way into the 12,340 to 12,420 area. Next support after that near 12,240 a 23% retracement of the previous uptrend. RSI under 50 and falling confirms increasing downward pressure.
Commodities
Gold has slipped back under $1,250 toward $1,244 but essentially continues to trend sideways between $1,235 and $1,260 near its 200 and 50-day averages.
WTI crude oil was unable to hold above $45.00 on its first attempt dropping back from a high neqar $45.30 toward $44.50 in what looks like a normal trading correction of resent gains. RSI still needs to regain 50 to call off the previous downtrend and confirm the upturn. Next potential resistance near $46.00 then $46.75 with next support near $44.20.
FX
US Dollar Index has dropped into the 95.30 to 95.70 area digesting two days of sharp declines and its breakdown under 96.20. Next potential support near 95.00 where a round number and measured move converge. Falling RSI signals increasing downward momentum.
EURUSD remains under accumulation, building on its breakout over $1.1300 by rallying into the $1.1390 to $1.1440 zone with next potential resistance near the $1.1500 round number. Rising RSI confirms upward momentum still accelerating.
GBPUSD keeps trending upward with the pair advancing to test $1.3000 round number and shoulder resistance with the May high near $1.3040 in sight. RSI above 50 and rising indicates upward momentum increasing. Support moves up toward $1.2960.
NZDUSD appears to be levelling off near $07300 trading between $0.7255 and $0.7355 short of Its February high near $0.7375. A negative RSI divergence indicates upward momentum slowing. Next support in a correction possible near $0.7200.
AUDUSD is breaking out today, decisively clearing $0.7625 to signal the start of a new upleg. RSI confirms rising upward momentum. Next potential resistance appears near a measured $0.7715 then $0.7745.
USDSGD continues to trend downward, taking out $1.3800 and falling under $1.3790 with next potential support near $1.3710 the low set earlier in June. RSI indicates momentum turning downward again.
USDJPY has suffered a setback, running into resistance near 112.90 short of 113.35 its next Fibonacci test, and dropping back toward 111.90. The pair remains in an uptrend, above its 50 and 200-day averages and with RSI still trending upward.
GBPJPY may have peaked for now having rallied up to 146.60 before dropping back toward 145.40 forming a shooting star candle. Rising RSI indicates momentum still trending upward but in a trading correction, 145.00 or even 144.00 support could be tested.
EURJPY is getting really overbought on the RSI and looking vulnerable as it encounters resistance near 129.00. The pair has dropped toward 128.20 in a normal pullback after a big rally with next potential support near 127.60.
USDCAD has encountered support at the $1.3000 round number and has been consolidating between there and $1.3040, working off an oversold RSI and digesting recent declines. Additional resistance near $1.3150 with next downside support possible near $1.2900.
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