It’s a big day for trading with a number of breakouts and significant moves underway. Oil has been particularly volatile, recently unwinding a rally that took place earlier in the day. JPY and USD have come under pressure, both breaking down while EUR and GBP break out to the upside. Indices have come under pressure and are showing signs of breaking down.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 remains in a downtrend with resistance falling from 5,800 toward 5,740 and the index testing 5,675 the Neckline of a head and shoulders top. RSI still under 50 indicates continuing distribution with next potential support at the 200-day average near 5,645.
Japan 225 continues to struggle with 20,240 resistance with more possible near 20,310. Lower highs in the RSI indicates upward momentum still slowing. Initial support possible near 20,100 then 19,975.
Hong Kong 50 still appears to be in a consolidation phase, bouncing around between 25,495 and 26,120. Although the RSI still holding 50 indicates continuing underlying accumulation, lower highs and an inability to regain 26,000 suggest the uptrend may be peaking.
North American and European Indices
US 30 continues to roll over on both the index and the RSI confirming an Evening Star peak and decreasing upward momentum. The index has slumped back under 21,400 toward a test of 21,355 with next potential support near 21,255.
US SPX 500 is breaking down today, taking out 2,430 to end an uptrend and signal a downturn with next potential support near 2,420 then the 50-day average near 2,405. RSI falling toward 50 indicates upward momentum fading and a downturn pending. Next support possible near 2,420 in a pullback.
US NDAQ 100 is rolling down from a lower high with resistance falling from 5,855 toward 5,790. The index has plunged down toward 5,685 and the 50-day average with next potential support near 5,635 then 5,545. RSI falling back under 50 confirms momentum turning downward.
UK 100 looks vulnerable here even though the 7,400 neckline of a head and shoulders top has held so far. Resistance drops toward 7,460 while the RSI retesting 50 as resistance following a breakdown confirms emerging distribution. Next potential support on a breakdown near 7,350.
Germany 30 is breaking down today, taking out uptrend support near 12,675 and falling toward a test of its 50-day average near 12,600. Next potential downside support in the 12,475 to 12,500 area. RSI breaking under 50 confirms a downturn in momentum.
Gold is trading near $1,250 as it continues to bounce up off the bottom of a $1,235 to $1,255 trading range between its 50 and 200-day averages. RSI indicates recent downward pressure fading but it needs to regain 50 to signal an upturn.
WTI crude oil has gone on a roller coaster ride today first rallying up from $42.50 toward $44.20 then rolling over and diving back down through $43.80 and on toward $43.55 with next support in the $43.20 to $43.40 area.
US Dollar Index has been hammered down from 97.10 toward 96.20, breaking 97.00 and falling through the bottom of a previous 96.25 to 97.50 range. RSI rolling under 50 indicates momentum turning downward. Next potential support near the 95.00 round number.
EURUSD is breaking out today, blasting through the top of a $1.1120 to $1.1290 consolidation range and advancing on $1.1345. Both the pair and the RSI have broken out of downtrends signalling a significant upturn underway.
GBPUSD continues to recovery, breaking through $1.2790, calling off a head and shoulders top and testing its 50-day average near $1.2850 before settling back toward $1.2820. Next potential resistance near $1.2950 on trend. RSI regaining 50 confirms an upturn underway.
NZDUSD appears to be peaking. The pair popped up through the top of a $0.7200 to $0.7300 trading range. The pair took a round trip between $0.7275 and $0.7375 in what looks like a shooting star or bull trap peak, particularly with a negative RSI divergence indicating upward momentum may have also peaked.
AUDUSD failed to break through $0.7625 Fibonacci resistance and has been knocked back down toward $0.7580 with next support possible near $0.7535 then $0.7500. A small head and shoulders in the RSI suggests upward momentum may be topping.
USDSGD ran into resistance at its 50-day average near $1.3900 and has started to drift back downward trading near $1.3875 with next support possible near $1.3845 then $1.3810. RSI slipping back under 50 signals momentum starting to turn back downward.
USDJPY is breaking out today, rallying up from its 50-day average near 111.40, clearing 112.15 to signal the start of a new upleg with next potential resistance near 113.00 then 113.35. Rising RSI confirms upward momentum accelerating.
GBPJPY is breaking out today, blasting through 143.30 the 50-day average and a Fibonacci level and rallying toward 144.00 with next resistance possible in the 144.80 to 145.10 area. RSI back above 50 and rising confirms momentum turning increasingly upward.
EURJPY is breaking out in a big way, blasting through 125.00 and soaring up toward 127.45 testing 127.75 resistance, a 62% retracement of a previous downtrend. RSI getting overbought suggests a pause possible but for now is confirming the uptrend. Support moves up toward 126.00 with next resistance possible near 129.49.
USDCAD remains under distribution for now with the RSI under 50 and trending lower indicating increasing downward momentum. Resistance drops toward $1.3260 with the pair falling toward $1.3200. The pair dipped down toward $1.3150 but has bounced back in what could be a bear trap reversal.
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