Oil has turned decisively downward today falling away from its moving averages. There also have been a number of reversals in today’s trading. On the bullish side, GBP has turned back upward following an early shakeout of weak hands. On the bearish side, the UK 100 and US NDAQ 100 staged bearish key reversals, unable to hold on to early gains.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 has successfully retested 5,675 support and bounced back up toward 5,720. It needs to retake 5,800 resistance, however, to call off its current downtrend. Next resistance after that at its 200-day average near 5,835 with next potential support at the 200-day average near 5,610.
Japan 225 continues to roll over and fall away from 20,000 with resistance dropping toward 19,700 and the index trading near 19,665. Next potential support appears near 19,565 then 19,500. RSI holding 50 indicates underlying uptrend still intact but a downturn pending.
Hong Kong 50 looks like it could be peaking following a key reversal day that saw it trade up toward 25,870 then drop back toward 25,645. A double top in the RSI signals upward momentum peaking for now and a correction possible with support in place near 25,000 a round number and recent breakout point.
North American and European Indices
US 30 has dropped back under 21,000 as it falls away from 21,130 resistance. Signals remain mixed with a downtrend in the RSI indicating declining upward momentum but an ascending triangle in the index indicating continued accumulation. Next potential support near 20,975 then the 50-day average near 20,800.
US SPX 500 is sitting just below 2,418 resistance, consolidating recent gains above its 2,400 breakout point. RSI is still trending down toward 50 indicating a downshift in momentum from upward to neutral.
US NDAQ 100 appears to be peaking in a key reversal day that saw the index peek above 5,800 to a new all-time high but meet resistance near 5,810 then drop back toward 5,775. A negative RSI divergence failed to confirm the high and indicates upward momentum may have peaked. Initial support possible near 5,695 a 23% retracement of the recent advance.
UK 100 has a bearish reversal underway and may have peaked. The index broke out over 7,555 to signal the start of a new upleg but ran into resistance near 7,585 and was knocked back down toward 7,535. Support moves up toward 7,525 from 7,500. A double top in the RSI suggests upward momentum has peaked and a correction possible.
Germany 30 has bounced back above 12,600 toward 12,680 where it tested downtrend resistance but failed to break out keeping a descending triangle intact. Meanwhile, RSI holding 50 signals its longer term uptrend remains intact. The index remains within a 12,475 to 12,900 trading channel with next resistance near 12,800 and initial support near 12,540.
Commodities
Gold continues to consolidate recent gains between $1,260 and $1,270. A step pattern in the price and RSI above 50 and rising indicate continuing accumulation. Next potential resistance on trend near $1,278 then $1,290 with next support near $1,256 a Fibonacci level, then $1,250.
WTI fell out of bed with a thud today, falling away from its 200-day average near $49.25 down toward $48.00. RSI failing to retake 50 and then turning downward confirms the downturn. Next potential support appears near $47.50 then $46.35.
FX
US Dollar Index has dropped back under 97.00 having encountered resistance near 97.75. RSI steady near 40 suggests a consolidation period underway within a bigger downtrend. Channel support in place near 96.65.
EURUSD has regained $1.1200 and advanced on $1.1235 as it climbs within its $1.1095 to $1.1260 trading range. RSI suggests, however, that overall upward momentum may be slowing.
GBPUSD survived a dip down toward $1.2775 again holding its 50-day average and has bounced back through $1.2800 toward $1.2880. It still has a lot of work to do to call off its recent downturn with RSI still under 50 and the pair still under the $1.2940 breakdown point.
NZDUSD is testing $0.7100 and its 200-day moving average today. Rising RSI indicates upward momentum increasing. Next resistance on a breakout possible near $0.7145 then $0.7200 and $0.7250. support rises toward $0.7080 from $0.7030.
AUDUSD is stuck in neutral trading between $0.7420 and $0.7470. It has been unable to get close to $0.7500 which it needs to clear to signal an upturn. Meanwhile, a break would signal a downturn with next support near $0.7390. RSI failing near 50 and turning down suggests distribution resuming.
USDSGD is still bouncing around between $1.3800 and $1.3890. It’s still unclear if this is a base forming or a pause within a bigger downtrend. Next upside resistance near $1.3950 with next support possible near a measured $1.3710.
USDJPY is still testing the bottom of a 110.65 to 112.15 range trading below 111.00. RSI under 50 and falling confirms distribution and indicates downward pressure increasing again. Next potential support in the 110.00 to 110.20 area near a round number and the 200-day average.
GBPJPY has bounced up off of 141.85 the 50-day average having completed a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent advance. RSI suggests downward pressure flattening out but no sign of an upturn yet. Next support near 140.40 on a breakdown with initial resistance in place near 143.30 then 144.75.
EURJPY has levelled off in the 123.00 to 126.00 zone consolidating a big rally up from 113.00. RSI falling back toward 50 indicates momentum shifting from upward to neutral. Recent trading near 124.40 above 124.00 support and below 125.00 resistance.
USDCAD is turning back upward, breaking through $1.3500 and its 50-day average to signal an upturn. RSI approaching 50 indicating easing downward pressure. A breakout would confirm the price action. Next potential resistance near $1.3535 then $1.3570 a Fibonacci level.
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