WTI crude oil staged a big breakout on Friday over the $45.00 level. This sparked additional gains for commodity currencies particularly CAD, AUD and NZD with even GBP joining the party. GBPUSD broke out over $1.3000 while USDCAD broke under $1.3000 on Friday. Indices stabilized but were unable to call off building bearish technicals.
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 continues to bounce around 5,740 a Fibonacci level, trading between 5,675 and 5,800. RSI bouncing around 50 confirms sideways momentum.
Hong Kong 50 held 25,700 and has bounced up toward 25,780 as it continues to trend sideways between 25,495 and 26,000. RSI steady just above 50 indicates a pause underway within an uptrend, but a downturn possible.
Japan 225 found support near 19,860 and has bounced back up through 20,000 toward 20,070. RSI holding 50 indicates its underlying uptrend remains intact but the index needs to retake 20,090 a broken trend support line, to call off a completed rising wedge.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is coming off an inside day, where it consolidated Thursday’s Bearish Engulfing losses between 21,340 and 21,380. RSI falling toward 50 indicates upward momentum fading and a downturn pending. Resistance drops toward 21,400 with next support near 21,185 and 21,105 near the 50-day average.
US SPX 500 is holding above 2,410 support near its 50-day average but is still rolling over with resistance falling toward 2,430. RSI testing 50 support to indicate sideways momentum but a breakdown would signal a downturn.
US NDAQ 100 has found initial support near 5,580 a 23% retracement of the previous uptrend and bounced toward 5,680 but it remains vulnerable, still trading below its 50-day average and rolling over with resistance falling toward 5,680. RSI under 50 confirms continuing distribution.
UK 100 has found some initial support near 7,300 and has stabilized between there and 7,380. It remains in a downtrend below 7,400 the former neckline of a completed head and shoulders top. RSI indicates continuing distribution. Next potential support near 7,200 on trend.
Germany 30 remains in breakdown mode, falling toward 12,300 after retesting 12,475 the recent breakdown point as new resistance then bouncing back toward 12,380. Falling RSI confirms increasing downward pressure. Next potential support near 12,240 a 23% retracement of the previous uptrend.
Commodities
Gold continues to bounce around between $1,238 and $1,258 its 200 and 50-day averages, recently trading near $1,243. RSI steady between 40 and 50 indicates momentum still slightly downward, but a higher low holding suggests this could be a pause within a bigger uptrend, signals are mixed.
WTI crude oil broke out decisively over $45.00 Friday, taking a run at $46.00 while support moved up toward $45.60. RSI breaking out over 50 signals momentum turning upward. Next potential upside test $46.70 a 38% Fibonacci retracement of the previous downtrend.
FX
US Dollar Index has stabilized in the 95.35 to 95.55 area, holding above 95.00 round number support but still trading well below 96.20 its recent breakdown point.
EURUSD has levelled off between $1.1390 and $1.1445 consolidating the big gains of the last few days that followed the breakout over $1.1290 and working off an overbought RSI. Additional support near $1.1375 with next resistance near $1.1500.
GBPUSD remains under accumulation and continues to trade near the $1.3000 round number, bouncing around between $1.2960 and $1.3030. Additional support in place near $1.2925, next resistance possible near $1.3150.
NZDUSD remains under steady accumulation, clearing $0.7300 and advancing on $0.7340 with next potential resistance in the $0.7375 to $0.7400 zone between a previous high and a measured move. Rising RSI confirms increasing upward momentum.
AUDUSD ran into resistance near $0.7720 and was knocked back toward $0.7680 in what looks like a normal pullback. RSI continues to rise indicating underlying upward momentum intact. Upside resistance appears near $0.7740 then $0.7775, with support rising toward $0.7670.
USDSGD remains under pressure, falling away from $1.3810 Fibonacci resistance toward $1.3770 with next potential support near $1.3765 then $1.3710. Falling RSI confirms increasing downward momentum.
USDJPY has paused near 112.15 a Fibonacci level digesting recent action after running into resistance near 113.00 with more possible near 113.35. The pair remains in an uptrend above its 50 and 200-day averages. RSI confirms current trading as a rest stop within an uptrend.
GBPJPY remains under accumulation, rallying up toward 146.40 after establishing 145.00 as higher support on trend. Next potential resistance tests near 147.00 then 147.95. Rising RSI confirms increasing upward momentum.
EURJPY broke out over 126.00 last week and continues to trend upward moving up into the 127.80 to 128.40 area. Next potential resistance near the 130.00 round number. RSI getting really overbought suggests the pair may need a rest or a correction sometime soon.
USDCAD continues to trend lower, breaking down below the $1.3000 round number and falling into the $1.2950 to $1.2980 zone. Next potential support appears near $1.2900. RSI getting oversold suggests potential for a pause or bounce at some point.
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