Oil could be active again to start the new week following a big plunge and bounce to finish last week. Meanwhile, gold and JPY continue to strengthen as capital keeps moving into defensive havens. Indices, meanwhile continue to struggle.
Note that the US and UK are in the middle of long weekends with holidays on Monday, so trading on related markets could be light.
Australia 200 continues to retreat amid trends of lower highs in both the index and the RSI. Resistance has dropped toward 5,800 and the index has dropped toward 5,750. Next potential support appears in the 5,665 to 5,700 area. RSI under 50 and falling indicates downward momentum increasing.
Hong Kong 50 ran into resistance near 25,775 and has started to drop back a bit, slipping toward 25,650. RSI overbought and a double top suggests upward momentum may be peaking. It remains in an uptrend above its recent 25,495 breakout point with next support near 25,000.
Japan 225 looks like it may have peaked with resistance dropping back into the 19,600 to 19,800 area from 20,000, recently trading near 19,735. A lower high in the RSI confirms upward momentum slowing and a downturn pending.
North American and European indices
US 30 failed to break out over 21,130 resistance last week and has slipped back toward 21,090. Another lower high in the RSI signals slowing upward momentum. So far 21,000 support has been holding but if it fails, next support may not appear until the 50-day average near 20,800.
US SPX 500 had an inside day Friday, consolidating Thursday’s breakout over 2,400 but sitting below 2,418. RSI remains in a downtrend and a bearish negative divergence continues to grow. Next measured resistance near 2,425 with next support at the 50-day average near 2,370.
US NDAQ 100 ran into resistance near 5,800 but is holding well above its 5,730 breakout point, trading near 5,775. A negative RSI divergence and non-confirmation suggests that upward momentum may have peaked.
UK 100 peeked up above 7,540 to a new high near 7,550 Friday while support moves up toward 7,500 indicating continued accumulation. A lower high in the RSI and a negative divergence forming suggests upward momentum may be slowing. Next measured resistance possible near 7,610.
Germany 30 is still rolling over falling from a lower high near 12,630 toward 12,590 with next potential support near 12,500 then the 50-day average near 12,360. RSI testing 50 where a breakdown would signal a downturn in momentum.
Gold broke out of a symmetrical triangle Friday clearing $1,260 to signal the start of a new upleg. The price has advanced on $1,266 with next potential resistance near $1,270 then $1,280 and $1,284. RSI holding 50 confirms underlying accumulation.
WTI has successfully retested $48.00 support and staged a strong bounce back above its 50 and 200-day averages near $49.30. Its RSI regained 50 to indicate its underlying uptrend remains intact, but the price needs to regain 50 to confirm the end of the recent selloff. Next downside support near $47.15.
US Dollar Index appears to be forming a saucer bottom between 96.65 and 97.35 with support moving up toward 97.00. RSI creeping up from 30 suggests downward pressure easing. Next resistance on an upturn in the 97.80 to 98.00 area.
EURUSD continues to roll over with resistance falling to $1.1230 from $1.1260 and the pair falling back under $1.1200. toward $1.1180. RSI rolling down from overbought signals a correction starting with next potential support near $1.1165 then $1.1095.
GBPUSD broke down from a rising wedge Friday, taking out $1.2900 and diving toward $1.2800. The RSI has confirmed the downturn falling below the 50 line. Next support appears at the 50-day average near $1.2730.
NZDUSD has a big breakout underway, rallying up off of $0.7000 through $0.7060 and on toward $0.7075. Rising RSI confirms increasing upward momentum. Next potential resistance at the 200-day average near $0.7100 also the top of the current trading channel.
AUDUSD turned downward Friday breaking $0.7460, causing a rising channel to fail. RSI fell back under 50 to confirm the downturn. Next potential support near $0.7425 then $0.7390.
USDSGD broke down below $1.3845 Friday signalling the start of a new downleg on trend. The pair has dropped to test $1.3810 a Fibonacci level with next support after that possible near a measured $1.3750. RSI under 50 indicates steady ongoing distribution.
GBPJPY broke down Friday taking out 143.30 a Fibonacci level, signalling the start of a new downleg. RSI broke down under 50 to confirm the downturn. Next potential support near 141.85 then the 50-day average near 141.60.
EURJPY has formed a double top near 126.00 and is starting to roll over, falling under 125.00 toward 124.50 with next support near 123.30. A negative RSI divergence indicates upward momentum weakening and a correction possible.
USDCAD’s latest trading bounce was contained by its 50-day average plus the $1.3500 round number. RSI below 50 confirms its downtrend remains intact and the pair has dropped back toward $1.3445 already. Next potential support near $1.3400 then $1.3310 on trend.
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