It has been a big day for technical action with a number of big intraday reversals underway, particularly in commodities and currencies. Some of the more notable moves, which could become trend changes include Crude Oil selling off after a breakout failed, a bull trap bottom in Gold, a reversal in CAD and a rebound for NZD.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 remains under distribution, continuing to form a bearish descending triangle above 5,655. Initial resistance has dropped toward 5,700 from 5,715 with next support on a breakdown possible near 5,625 and 5,580. RSI under 50 confirms downward momentum.
Japan 225 is holding steady near the middle of a 20,200 to 20,500 trading range. RSI indicates upward momentum levelling off but so far this looks more like a pause to digest a big rally than a top forming.
Hong Kong 50 continues to slide with resistance falling toward the 50-day average near 27,580 from 27,880. RSI under 50 confirms distribution with next potential support near 27,250 then 27,045 a Fibonacci retracement test.
North American and European Indices
US 30 held 22,300 support and has bounced back up toward 22,390 although it remains below its recent peak near 22,420. RSI steady just below 70 indicates consolidation. Next potential support near 22,210 a recent breakout point.
US SPX 500 held 2,500 and has climbed back toward the top of a $1,485 to 2,515 range where it has been consolidating normally. RSI levelling off below 70 indicates a pause within an uptrend underway.
US NDAQ 100 is holding above 5,900 trading near 5,935 just above its 50-day average but still below the 6,000 round number where it recently completed a double top. RSI bouncing around between 40 and 60 indicates a sideways trend which may coincide with the 5,860 to 6,000 zone.
UK 100 continues to struggle with resistance at its 200-day average near 7,328. The index has dropped back under 7,300 with next potential support near 7,270 then 7,235. RSI still below 50 and still in a downtrend confirms ongoing distribution.
Germany 30 continues to trend upward with support rising from 12.600 toward 12,660 and the index advancing on 12,725. Rising RSI confirms increasing upward momentum. Next potential resistance near 2,800.
Commodities
Gold could be forming a bull trap bottom after the price broke $1,282 a 50% retracement level, dropped toward $1,277 then stormed back up toward $1,286. RSI stabilizing near 40 suggests downward pressure may be reaching its limit. Initial rebound resistance possible at the 50-day average near $1,294 then the $1,300 round number.
WTI crude oil has a serious bearish reversal underway today. The price broke out over $52.00 and advanced on $52.35 before reversing sharply downward into the $50.90-$51.30 area in a big bull trap. Next support possible near $50.50 then $50.00. RSI also rolling over suggests upward momentum has peaked.
FX
US Dollar Index is holding between 92.90 and 93.10 as it consolidates Wednesday’s breakout. RSI holding above 50 confirms momentum has turned upward. Initial resistance possible near 93.45 then 94.00.
EURUSD has found support above $1.1685 a 23% retracement of its previous uptrend but its initial rebound has been feeble with the pair unable to retake $1.1800 let alone its 50-day average near $1.1840.
GBPUSD dipped down to a lower low near $1.3340 but has since rebounded toward $1.3445. Overbought conditions have eased a bit but more consolidation may be needed in the near term. The pair would need to retake its previous high near $1.3460 to signal an upturn with next resistance near $1.3500.
NZDUSD held its 200-day average near $0.7150 and remains between 40 and 60 on the RSI despite yesterday’s selloff indicating that downward pressure may be getting washed out. The pair has bounced back up toward $0.7240 with next resistance possible near $0.7275 and the 50-day average closer to $0.7300.
AUDUSD finally found some support near $0.7800 to stop its nosedive and has rebounded toward $0.7860. It remains way short of its $0.7900 breakdown point and its 50-day average near $0.7940. Should its downtrend resume following an upward correction, next support may appear near $0.7775.
USDSGD appears to be peaking in a shooting star reversal that saw the pair pop up through $1.3600 toward $1.3645 before getting smashed back down toward $1.3580. So far support at the 50-day average near $1.3565 and 50 on the RSI have held but if they fail it would confirm a near-term top emerging.
USDJPY peeked up above 113.00 briefly trading up toward 113.30 before turning downward and dropping back toward 112.45. RSI suggests upward momentum levelling off. Initial support possible back at the 200-day average near 111.95.
GBPJPY is still hanging around 151.00 as it digests a rally and works off an overbought RSI between 149.65 and 153.00. Initial resistance falls toward 151.50 while initial support rises toward 150.45.
EURJPY remains in an uptrend, having successfully retested 131.85 a recent breakout point as new support. The pair has bounced into the 132.40 to 132.90 area with next resistance possible near 133.45.
USDCAD appears to be staging a bull trap or failed breakout today. Early on the pair cleared $1.2480 a Fibonacci level and its 50-day average but ran into $1.2500 round number resistance then dove back down toward $1.2420 a bearish shift. Next potential support near $1.2390 then $1.2325.
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