The US Dollar’s recent breakout ran into headwinds today, enabling other markets to rebound. While EUR and GBP bounced back a bit, resource markets were the biggest beneficiaries with gold rallying up off of $1,300, Oil turning sharply upward and CAD and AUD taking new runs at $0.8000.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 continues its bounce up off the bottom of a 5,655 to 5,800 trading range, regaining 5,700 and advancing on 5,730- with next resistance possible near 5,750. RSI swinging between 40 and 60 indicates a broader sideways trend.
Japan 225 continues to rebound with support rising toward 19,590 and the index advancing toward 19,690. Next potential appears near 19,795 a Fibonacci level then the 50-day average near 19,885. RSI approaching 50 where a breakout would confirm the upturn.
Hong Kong 50 is still hanging around 28,000 with initial resistance near 28,050 then 28,190. A flattening RSI and a negative divergence indicate upward momentum slowing.
North American and European Indices
US 30 appears to be trying to resume its uptrend, continuing a rally up off its 50-day average near 21,675 by clearing 21,900 and advancing on the 22,000 round number before slumping back toward 21,925. RSI rising up off 50 indicates upward momentum re-accelerating.
US SPX 500 has confirmed the retaking of its 50-day average near 2,450 by advancing on 2,468 while the RSI back above 50 and rising indicates increasing upward momentum. Initial resistance appears near 2,482 in what appears to be a continuing upswing within a sideways trend.
US NDAQ 100 is consolidating yesterday’s regaining of 5,900 trading near 5,975 but remains stuck below the big 6,000 round number where a retest could end in a breakout or a double top. RSI has broken out of a downtrend to signal and upturn underway.
UK 100 continues to bounce around in a trading channel between 7,300 and 7,500. Having recently tested the lower boundary, the index has regained the 7,400 midpoint and the RSI has regained 50 to signal an upswing underway with initial resistance possible near 7,450.
Germany 30 has stabilized near the 12,000 round number and its 200-day average near 12,020, trading near 12,065. The index remains within a bigger downtrend, however, with the price stuck below 12.095 resistance and the RSI stuck below 50.
Gold has successfully retested support at its $1,300 breakout point, and then turned back upward decisively, rallying up through $1.310 toward $1,320 in a bullish outside day. RSI getting overbought but indicating increasing upward momentum. Resistance remains in place near $1,325.
WTI crude oil has a big rally underway today climbing up from $45.40 support through $46.00 and its 50-day average near $47.00 in a bullish engulfing day. Next resistance possible near $48.00 then $48.65. RSI holding 40 confirms underlying uptrend but needs to clear 50 to signal an upturn.
US Dollar Index tried to keep the rally up out of a bullish Morning Star basing pattern going but it faltered near 93.30 and slumped back toward 92.65. RSI failed to regain 50 indicating distribution continues. Initial pullback support in the 92.25 to 92.50 range.
EURUSD completed a bearish Evening Star and dropped back toward $1.1830 but has since rebounded. The index is retesting $1.1900 as resistance, a level it needs to retake to call off its recent breakdown. RSI falling toward 50 indicates upward momentum weakening and a downturn pending so signals remain mixed.
GBPUSD established support at a higher low near $1.2850 and has bounced back up through $1.2900 and on toward $1.2925. Resistance remains in place near $1.2970 a Fibonacci level and its 50-day average. RSI hanging around 50 indicates sideways momentum.
NZDUSD seems to be at a significant technical tipping point. The pair broke $0.7190 a Fibonacci level, dove down toward $0.7130 but has since rebounded toward $0.7180. How it trades today may indicate whether this breakdown is going to be confirmed or rejected. Next support near $0.7160 with next resistance near $0.7240.
AUDUSD is on the rebound, rallying up toward $0.7945 having confirmed support near $0.7865. RSI holding 50 confirms its broader uptrend continues. Next resistance possible near $0.8000 then $0.8060.
USDSGD appears to be resuming its long-term downtrend with the pair dropping back toward $1.3555 after running into resistance at a lower high near $1.3600. RSI falling away from 50 indicates increasing downward momentum. Next support possible closer to the $1.3500 round number.
USDJPY has dropped back toward 110.00 after running into Fibonacci resistance near 110.60. RSI failing to retake 50 indicates that an upward correction within a bigger downtrend may be over and distribution resuming. Next support possible near 109.50 then 109.00.
GBPJPY ran into resistance at 143.00 again and has slipped back toward 142.25. At the same time, the RSI failed to retake 50 indicating its broader downtrend remains intact. A head and shoulders base may be forming with initial support near 141.85.
EURJPY appears to be rolling over with the pair falling away from 131.85 resistance toward the 130.70 to 131.00 area. A negative RSI divergence indicates slowing upward momentum. Next support possible near the 130.00 round number.
USDCAD peaked near $1.2640 and dove back down toward $1.2500. More importantly, RSI failed to retake 50 then turned downward indicating that its longer term downtrend may be resuming. Initial support near $1.2425 which it recently retested successfully.
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