The yen has started to attract renewed interest, breaking out against USD, GBP and EUR today. Gold has also broken out to the upside, confirming capital has started to move back into defensive havens. Meanwhile, indices continue to roll over with the US Small Cap 2000 breaking to the downside and the US 30 back retesting 22,000.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 is trading back up near 5,750 still forming an ascending triangle of higher lows below 5,800. RSI near 50 and creeping upward indicates continuing accumulation as the index trends upward above its 200-day average recently near 5700. Next resistance on a breakout possible near 5,845.
Japan 225 is accelerating downward today with the index falling away from 20,000 and the RSI falling away from 50 providing confirmation. The index has broken 19795 a Fibonacci level and is trading near 19,730 with next potential support near 19,485 a 38% retracement of its previous advance.
Hong Kong 50 is looking exhausted and vulnerable. The index recently peaked near 27,940 just short of the 28,000 round number and has dropped back toward 27,700. RSI overbought and rolling over indicates a correction possible. Next potential support near 27,500 then 27,320 a 23% Fibonacci retracement.
North American and European Indices
US 30 continues to decline following a key reversal day that saw the index reach a new all-time high then turn downward. RSI is overbought and rolling over, a break of 70 (or 22,000 on the index) would signal the start of a correction. Resistance has dropped toward 22,040 with next downside support possible near 21,955 then 21,900.
US SPX 500 has turned back downward following a bearish key reversal day which saw it break out over 2,482 to an all-time high, approach 2,500, then turn downward sharply. Today, an initial support line has been broken as the index falls toward 2,465. Next potential support near 2,460 then the 50-day average near 2,448.
US NDAQ 100 completed a double top near 6,000 Tuesday and is breaking down today taking out 5,900 and an initial trend support line. RSI has dropped to test 50 where a break would confirm a downturn in momentum. Next potential support near 5,845, then 5,800.
US SmallCap 200 is breaking down today, taking out 1,400 to confirm the start of a new downtrend. RSI under 50 and accelerating downward indicates increasing downward pressure. Next potential support near 1,390 then the 200-day average near 1,372.
UK 100 has rolled back under 7,500 failing to hold a breakout up toward 7,555. The index has dropped toward 7,490 with next potential support near 7,460 then 7,420. RSI bouncing around 50 indicates this could be a downswing within a sideways trend.
Germany 30 continues to sink toward the bottom of its 12,090 to 12,325 trading channel, with resistance dropping from 12,240 toward 12,160. RSI under 50 and falling indicates increasing downward pressure. Next potential support near 12,000 on a breakdown.
Commodities
Gold is breaking out today, rallying up off of $1,260, clearing $1,275 and advancing on $1,280 with next resistance after that possible near $1,295. RSI still trending upward confirms increasing accumulation.
WTI crude oil has regained $49.00 and is trading in the upper half of a $48.25 to $29.75 channel bounded by two Fibonacci levels. RSI in an uptrend and holding near 60 suggests this is a normal pause within a bigger uptrend. Next potential upside resistance in the $50.00 to $50.25 area.
FX
US Dollar Index is consolidating Tuesday’s breakout from a downtrend, holding above 93.00 near 93.40. RSI back above 30 and climbing indicates downward pressure easing. Next potential resistance near 93.60 then 94.00.
EURUSD continues to backslide in what looks like a deepening correction. The pair has dropped toward $1.1750 and the bottom quarter of a $1.700 to $1.1900 range. A breakdown would signal a deeper downturn underway with next potential support near $1.1595.
GBPUSD has stabilized near $1.3000 trading above its 50-day average near $1.2930 and $1.2970 a 23% retracement of its previous uptrend. RSI slipping under 50, however, signals momentum turning downward so the pair remains vulnerable. Initial resistance drops toward $1.3030.
NZDUSD found support near $0.7300 and has bounced up toward $0.7340 but a lot of technical damage has been done and the RSI still below 50 suggests it may not be over yet. The pair appears to be moving into a Fibonacci trading range between $0.7275 and $0.7385 the 38% and 23% retracements of the uptrend that ran from May to July.
AUDUSD continues to retreat falling toward $0.78555 where it has completed a 23% retracement of its previous uptrend. Next potential support appears near $0.7815 then $0.7725 the 38% retracement level. Resistance falls toward $0.7920. RSI falling toward 50 where a break could confirm a downturn in momentum.
USDSGD continues to steadily recover. Support moves up from $1.3600 toward $1.3620 The pair has advanced in $1.3640 with next potential resistance near $1.3675 then $1.3700. RSI gaining on 50 indicates downward pressure fading and confirmation of an upturn pending.
USDJPY is breaking down today, taking out 110.60 then 110.00 on its way down toward 109.75. Falling RSI confirms distribution. Next potential support near 109.65 then 109.00.
GBPJPY is breaking down today. The pair has followed breaking under its 50-day average by taking out 143.30, a Fibonacci level and dropping toward 142.80. RSI under 50 and falling confirms increasing downward momentum. Next potential support near 141.85 where the 200-day average and a 50% retracement converge.
EURJPY is breaking to the downside today, taking out former uptrend support and a channel bottom in the 129.50 to 129.80 area then falling toward 129.00. RSI falling under 50 confirms momentum turning downward. Next potential support near 127.45 the 50-day average.
USDCAD has levelled off between $1.2640 and $1.2740 a 23% Fibonacci retracement of its previous downtrend recently trading near $1.2700. Oversold conditions have eased and the RSI holding below 50 indicates the recent rally has been an upward correction within a downtrend.
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