We’re seeing a big split in resource currency action today with CAD rallying and AUD taking it on the chin. For the most part other forex markets have been steady. Indices are sending mixed signals with the Australia 200 climbing, the Hong Kong 50 falling and the Japan 225 indecisive.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 is bumping up against 5,800 and its 50-day average where a breakout would signal an upturn and call off a head and shoulders top. RSI back above 50 indicates momentum turning upward.
Next resistance possible near 5.820 then 5,875 with support rising toward 5,765 from 5,745.
Japan 225 is trending sideways in a channel between 19,900 and 20,300. Resistance drops toward 20,180 with recent trading near 20,060. RSI falling toward 50 indicates slowing upward momentum with a downturn pending.
Hong Kong 50 is breaking down today, taking out 25,500 completing a bearish descending triangle and then taking out its 50-day average on its way down toward 25,380 with next potential support near the 25,000 round number. RSI breaking under 50 confirms a downturn in momentum.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is closed for Independence Day
US SPX 500 is closed for Independence Day
US NDAQ 100 is closed for Independence Day
UK 100 has found some support near 7,300 but remains in a downtrend stuck below 7,400 the neckline of a completed head and shoulders top. Falling RSI indicates ongoing distribution.
Germany 30 has stabilized between 12,410 and 12,475, but it remains in a downtrend, trading just below its recent 12,475 breakdown point. Next downside support possible in the 12,320 to 12,330 area.
Gold has stabilized near $1,225 but a lot of technical damage was done when it broke $1,240 and its 200-day average on Monday. Next support possible near $1,215 then $1,200.
WTI crude oil has paused for a rest near $46.90 having completed a 38% retracement of its previous downtrend. Support moves up from $46.00. Next resistance possible near $47.50 then $48.25 on trend.
US Dollar Index is sitting just below 96.00 having bounced up from 95.40 Monday, but so far this appears to be a normal upward correction with the index still trading below its recent 96.30 breakdown point. RSI suggests downward pressure may be starting to ease but more confirmation required.
EURUSD continues to slip back in a normal trading correction after running into resistance near $1.1435. The pair has been trading between $1.1340 and $1.1380 recently with next support near $1.1285 its recent breakout point. RSI rolling over suggests upward momentum peaking and a correction starting
GBPUSD has dropped back under $1.3000 and appears to have completed an Evening Star candle formation that suggests potential for a correction, particularly with the RSI indicating upward momentum may have peaked for now. Initial support possible near $1.2915 then the 50-day average near $1.2865.
NZDUSD is hanging around $0.7300 trading between $0.7265 and $0.7345 while consolidating below the February high near $0.7375. Signals are mixed with the RSI suggesting upward momentum slowing but the 50 and 200-day averages approaching a golden cross.
AUDUSD has turned back downward sharply from $0.7700 resistance, falling from $0.7660 toward $0.7590 with next potential support near $0.7535 the 200-day average and a Fibonacci level, then $0.7500.
USDSGD is sitting on $1.3810 a Fibonacci level, near the middle of a $1.3710 to $1.3880 trading range. A higher low for the pair and the RSI suggests a base may be forming but it would need to break out over its 50-day average to signal an upturn.
USDJPY has encountered resistance near 113.35, a Fibonacci level where it has stopped to rest following a rally up from 112.15. Rising RSI indicates continuing accumulation. Support has moved up toward 112.75 with next potential resistance near 113.75.
GBPJPY has paused for a rest between 146.00 and 147.00 following a big drive up from 140.00 in recent weeks. The pair remains in an upswing above 145.00 with next potential resistance near 147.95.
EURJPY has encountered resistance near 129.00 with more possible near the 130.00 round number. The pair appears to be levelling off to work off an overbought RSI above 12.800 with next support after that possible near 126.00 a previous breakout point.
USDCAD is breaking down today, taking out $1.2970 to signal the start of a new downleg and then carrying down into the $1.2910 to $1.2940 zone. RSI oversold so a pause possible but for now, the current downtrend remains intact below $1.3000. Next potential downside support near $1.2900 then $1.2830.
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