There have been a number of significant moves in currency markets this afternoon as USD tumbled following the FOMC statement, igniting rallies in gold, GBP, AUD, NZD, SGD, JPY and other currencies. Crude oil continues to advance as well, having a positive impact on the Australia 200 which has broken out of a downtrend today.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 is breaking out of a downtrend today, clearing 5,760 and causing a descending triangle to fail. RSI above 50 confirms momentum accelerating upward. Initial resistance appears near 5,800 followed by 5,830 then 5,885.
Japan 225 continues to bounce around in a sideways channel between 19,790 and 20,290. The index ran into resistance at a lower high near 20,120 and has dropped back toward 20,070 with next potential support between the 50-day average near 19,985 and 20,020 bouncing around the 20,000 level.
Hong Kong 50 is starting to level off just below 27,000 round number resistance with a doji candle indicating bulls and bears coming back into balance following a rally. An overbought RSI suggests potential for a correction with initial support possible near 26,815.
North American and European Indices
US 30 remains under accumulation, peeking up above 21,700 toward a new high near 21,740. Next measured resistance possible closer to 21,900, next support near 21,600. RSI confirms steady upward momentum.
US SPX 500 is still bumping up against 2,480 resistance at its all-time high. The index remains under accumulation with support moving up toward 2,476 from 2,470. A breakout would signal the start of a new upleg that could challenge the 2,500 round number.
US NDAQ 100 is still consolidating recent gains between 5,900 and 5,950. An overbought RSI and a negative divergence indicate slowing upward momentum but a run at 6,000 remains possible. Initial support in a pullback near 5,845.
UK 100 continues to climb toward a test of the top of its 7,300 to 7,500 trading range, with the index trading between 7,430 and 7,490. RSI bouncing around 50 confirms a sideways trend.
Germany 30’s latest trading bounce may be ending as the price peaked earlier on near 12,340 short of 12,370 resistance. The index has dropped back toward 12,290. A break of 12,240 would complete a head and shoulders top with next potential support near 12,145.
Gold dipped under $1,250, fell toward $1.245 then turned around and rallied back up toward $1,255 in a bear trap reversal that suggests weak hands may have been shaken out. RSI above 50 indicates underlying accumulation intact but it needs to break out over $1,260 to signal the start of a new upleg.
WTI crude oil has paused for a rest stop near $48.50, having completed a 50% retracement of its previous downtrend. RSI confirms underlying upward momentum still increasing through this break to digest a big bounce up off of $45.25 this week. Next resistance possible near $48.70 then between $49.75 and $50.00 a 62% retracement and a big round number.
Copper continues to soar, breaking out over $2.82 and rallying up toward $2.88. Next upside resistance possible near $2.93 a Fibonacci level or the $3.00 round number. RSI is really overbought so a correction possible with initial support near $2.75.
US Dollar Index has been knocked back from 94.10 toward 93.50 but it has not broken the bottom of a hammer candle near 93.40. The post-Fed slide looks at this point to be a setback but a base still appears to be forming. An oversold RSI indicates potential for a trading bounce at some point.
EURUSD is taking another run at $1.1700 where it continues to struggle with resistance. RSI signals are mixed with the indicator overbought but still indicating increasing upward momentum. Next potential resistance near $1.1775 the 200-week moving average.
GBPUSD remains under accumulation, confirming the $1.3000 round number has become support following a breakout. The pair has rallied up toward $1.3090 with next potential resistance near $1.3155.
NZDUSD has caught fire today, rallying up from near $0.7400, breaking out over $0.7450 and challenging the $0.7500 round number along with a previous peak. RSI nearing overbought but indicating increasing upward momentum.
AUDUSD as rallied up from $0.7885 toward $0.7975 as it continues to consolidate a big rally and work off an overbought RSI between $0.7870 and $0.8000. A breakout would signal the start of a new upleg with next measured resistance near $0.7130.
USDSGD is sliding again today, falling from $1.3640 toward $1.3560 with next potential support near the $1.3500 round number. RSI getting oversold but still signalling increasing downward pressure.
USDJPY encountered resistance near 112.15 a Fibonacci level and its 50-day average and has turned back downward, breaking below its 200-day average near 111.65 toward 111.45 with next potential support near 111.0-0 then 110.60. RSI still sitting just below 50 suggests the recent upswing may be a trading bounce within a bigger uptrend.
GBPJPY peeked above the midpoint of a 144.00 to 146.00 trading range but has been knocked back from 146.40 toward 145.90 in recent trading. RSI bouncing around 50 confirms a sideways trend. Next support possible near 145.50 then 145.00.
EURJPY remains under accumulation, holding above the 130.00 round number and forming an ascending triangle below 131.00. RSI suggests upward momentum slowing as it works off previously overbought conditions.
USDCAD has broken down under $1.2500 toward $1.2480 and is sitting just above $1.2465 long-term support. RSI is extremely oversold and levelling off suggesting potential for a trading bounce with initial resistance near $1.2540.
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