Chart of the week – AUD/USD
AUD/USD potential bearish breakdown
Short-term technical analysis
Source: CMC Markets
- The AUD/USD has staged a recent failure bullish breakout during the period from 20 October to 01 November 2021. After a high of 0.7555 printed on 28 October 2021, the AUD/USD has traded lower and reintegrated back below a major descending trendline resistance from its 52-week high of 0.8007 printed on 25 February 2021.
- Since its reintegration on 2 November 2021, it has declined by -154 pips to print a low of 0.7277 on last Friday, 12 November. Right now, it is coming close to the lower boundary of the ascending range in place since 20 August 2021 low of 0.71063 now acting as a support at 0.7250.
- If the 0.7460 key medium-term pivotal resistance (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 28 October 2021 high to 12 November 2021 low & the major descending trendline from 25 February 2021) is not surpassed to the upside, the AUD/USD may see a potential bearish breakdown from the ascending range support of 0.7250 to set sight on 0.7170 next in the first step.
- On the other hand, a 4-hour close above 0.7460 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up to retest the next resistance at 0.7560 (28 October 2021 swing high area & the former range support from 1 February/1 April 2021).
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