For two months, WTI had been under pressure but recently it has started to turn around. In late July and early August, the price continued to decline but new trend lows were not confirmed by the RSI, a positive divergence that indicated downward momentum was slowing. This week, momentum has more clearly turned upward with the WTI price breaking out over its 50-day moving average near $96.00 which may become new support. The RSI has broken out of a downtrend as well and a move through 50 would confirm upward momentum increasing. Initial resistance may appear near $97.00 followed by $97.90 a 23% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downtrend, and $99.90 a 38% retracement that clusters near the $100.00 round number barrier. While political turmoil in Ukraine and the middle east create a lot of noise in the marketplace and can influence day to day trading, the growing US economy appears to be the primary driver of a recovery. Today’s strong Chicago PMI and consumer confidence reports indicate upward momentum has continued in the US economy and this appears to be driving strong demand for US crude oil. US crude inventories have declined by more than 1 million barrels in 8 of the last 9 weeks and 5 of those declines have been by more than 3 million barrels.
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