As is often the case on US holidays, stock markets and commodities have been relatively quiet today. There has been significant action, however, in currency markets.
In particular, today’s trading action in resource dollars (which usually tend to trend in the same direction) shows that the shift in monetary policy direction at some central banks recently, and the positions on what to do about interest rates among central banks relative to each other, continues to dominate trading sentiment. The big divergence among resource dollars today is a case in point. AUD spent the day under pressure and underperforming, along with SEK. The RBA and Riksbank both took a neutral stance on interest rates Tuesday. In a time of increasing, hawkishness, neutrality has become dovish on a relative basis, depressing their currencies.
On the other hand, the Bank of Canada’s hawkish shift of late and calls for backing off on monetary stimulus by raising interest rates continues to boost the loonie. Tuesday in an interview, Governor Poloz further hinted a rate hike may be coming perhaps as soon as next week’s meeting when he indicated that he thinks central bankers shouldn’t wait for inflation to hit targets before raising rates.
Moving into Wednesday, Asia Pacific and European traders will have a number of service PMI reports to digest while waiting for US traders to return from holiday and provide renewed leadership. US factory orders and FOMC minutes could influence trading.
There are no major corporate announcements today
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI54.7 vs previous 55.1
UK construction PMI54.8 vs street 55.0
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
11:00 am AESTNZ ANZ commodity pricesprevious 3.2%
10:00 am BSTEurozone retail salesstreet 2.3%
10:00 am EDTUS factory ordersstreet (0.5%)
2:00 pm EDTFOMC minutes
Service/non-manufacturing PMI reports:
9:30 am AESTAustraliaprevious 51.5
10:30 am AESTSingaporeprevious 51.4
10:30 am AESTJapanprevious 53.0
11:45 am AESTChina Caixinprevious 52.8
9:30 am BSTUKstreet 53.5
8:55 am BSTGermanystreet 53.7
8:50 am BSTFrancestreet 55.3
8:45 am BSTItalystreet 54.6
8:15 am BSTSpainstreet 56.5
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