y Ric Spooner CMC Markets Australia and Colin Cieszynski CMC Markets Canada
If you are following the Brexit vote tomorrow, here’s what to expect
Voting will close at 10pm BST (5 pm EDT, 2 pm PDT)
There will be no exit polls taken
However, polling companies may do “on the day” surveys and publish results after official voting closes
When voting closes; ballot boxes will be transported to 382 local centres for counting.
Officials will firstly count the number of votes in each centre and announce “turnout’ for that area
They will then proceed to counting the leave and remain votes in each area.
Once each area’s count is completed, it will be publically announced. In many cases this will be done before TV cameras (it’s going to be a massive media event)
Demographics are likely to play a hand in each area’s result. Polling suggests that the leave vote is strongest in areas with heavy concentrations of older or less educated voters.
Keep in mind that the referendum will be determined by the total number of votes throughout the UK and not on the basis of a majority of areas.
The media and pundits will be keeping a running tally of the total vote as each area is declared
The first results from small areas are likely to start being announced around 12am BST (7 pm EDT, 4 pm PDT)
By 2am BST (9 pm EDT, 6 pm PDT) around 40 area results are likely to have been reported.
Between 2am and 5am BST (9 pm – midnight EDT, 6 pm - 9 pm PDT) the area results should flow thick and fast.
The final area counts should be declared by 7am GMT (2 am EDT, 11 pm PDT)
How soon the pundits will get a reliable sense of the referendum’s outcome will depend on how close the vote is. The general expectation is that pundits may be able to reliably call the result sometime between 3 am-5am BST (10pm – midnight EDT, 7pm-9pm PDT). However, if the vote is really close, it could be as late as 8am GMT (3am EDT, midnight PDT) before the result is known.
Asia Pacific traders in the firing line:
Given the timing of the vote, if there is going to be high volatility surrounding this event, it’s likely to start during the Asian time zone.
North American traders with access to 24 hour trading can also take advantage of market moves during this time, especially traders on the west coast with results due through the evening after work.
Look for analyst comment on market reaction to significant milestones in the Brexit count on our CFD platform Insights tomorrow. Insights can be accessed under the Market Pulse Tab on the top tool bar.
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