The long term Aussie Dollar outlook seems pretty bearish again after breaking past the September lows this week. Here are my thoughts on the monthly chart

 

Aussie Dollar outlook - monthly chart

 

AUDUSD CFD - Monthly Click to Enlarge AUDUSD CFD - Monthly
Click to Enlarge

The month isn't over yet but at this stage, the January candle looks pretty likely to make a lower high and a lower low. That will leave the monthly chart trending down after the minor corrective rally that peaked in December at .7385.

This long term trend on the monthly chart still looks strong and impulsive. The corrections have been relatively small and have stopped short of the previous lows which is a sign of strong trending behavior.

The December peak rejected the 10 month moving average. The previous peak did the same thing back in May. That makes the 10 month moving average look like a pretty useful tool for defining this long term down trend.

Resistance and trend change

At the moment it would take a move up through the December peak at .7385 and the 10 month moving average to indicate that the long term down trend has ended

Possible long term support

There's not much to work with below current levels for quite a while. This might change on shorter term charts if and when the Aussie does more work below current levels.

At the moment though, the the two levels that look most interesting to me are:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Around .6130. This is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the whole 2001 -2011 rally. It also neatly coincides with an AB=CD pattern as outlined on the chart
  • The 2008 low around .60

 

For long term trend followers trading with daily or weekly time frame charts, this long term outlook makes the Aussie look like a market to sell rallies below the .7385 resistance