AUD and NZD strengthen heading toward PMI reports
Today looks like it could be another big day for Asia Pacific trading. AUD and NZD have been top performing currencies overnight building on yesterday’s gains. Improved building reports on both sides of the Tasman Sea and improving New Zealand business confidence sparked rallies in both Dollars. Today Australia and New Zealand may be active on another round of big reports led by Australia GDP and PMI plus commodity and house price information.
We also could see action in China and Japan around monthly PMI reports which could indicate of their economies are still muddling along, improving or getting worse, which could indicate how much pressure fiscal and monetary authorities are under to increase stimulus. Commodities and resource exporters may also be impacted by the China news.
North American and European indices fell moderately today for the most part on very mixed economic news. In the US, very strong personal spending was offset by a drop in Chicago PMI back under 50 and soft consumer sentiment. This didn’t change FOMC rate hike expectations with traders still focused on tomorrow’s national PMI and Beige Book regional economic reports plus ADP and nonfarm payrolls later in the week.
European employment data had Germany exceeding expectations and Italy doing worse than expected a sign that after all these years nothing has changed in Europe, the same cracks and fissures remain.
GBP came under some pressure during the day as poll results showed the Leave campaign gaining momentum. An ORB poll showed Remain’s lead narrowing dramatically to 51%-46% from 55%-42% last week. Later results from ICM/Guardian combining online and telephone results showed Leave ahead 52%-48%. Declines in Cable unwound some of the gains made off polls last week but do not indicate a serious increase in concerns about the implications of a Leave vote with threats of impending doom increasingly being tuned out by traders. UK markets may remain choppy with the big vote three weeks from Thursday.
Canadian stocks spend most of the day in the green but faded into the close led by energy producers and miners as WTI continued to challenge $50/bbl ahead of Thursday’s OPEC meeting while gold staged a solid bounce up off of $1,200/oz. This action could send positive momentum toward today’s trading in Australia.
There have been no major announcements after the US close today.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US personal income 0.4% as expected
US personal spending 1.0% vs street 0.7%
US core PCE inflation 1.6% as expected
US Chicago PMI 49.3 vs street 50,5
US consumer confidence 92.6 vs street 96.3
US Dallas Fed (20.8) vs street (8.0) vs previous (13.9)
Canada Mar GDP 1.1% vs street 1.4% vs previous 1.5%
Canada Q1 GDP 2.4% vs street 2.8% vs previous 0.8%
Eurozone unemployment rate 10.2% as expected
Eurozone consumer prices (0.1%) as expected
Eurozone core CPI 0.8% as expected
Germany unemployment change (11K) vs street (5K)
Germany unemployment rate 6.1% vs street 6.2%
Germany retail sales 2.3% vs street 1.7%
France consumer prices (0.1%) as expected
Greece retail sales (4.3%) vs previous (7.3%)
Italy unemployment rate 11.7% vs street 11.4%
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
9:50 am AEST Japan Q1 capital spending street 2.4% vs previous 8.5%
10:00 am AEST NZ QV house prices previous 12.0%
11:30 am AEST Australia GDP street 2.8% vs previous 3.0%
4:30 pm AEST Australia commodity prices previous (9.4%)
12:00 am BST UK BRC shop prices previous (1.7%)
7:00 am BST UK Nationwide house prices street 4.8%
9:30 am BST OECD economic outlook
10:00 am EDT US construction spending street 0.6%
2:00 pm EDT US Fed Beige Book
TBA US climate change energy ministers conference
Manufacturing PMI Reports:
9:30 am AEST Australia previous 53.4
11:00 am AEST China street 50.0
11:00 am AEST China non-manuf previous 53.5
11:45 am AEST China Caixin street 49.2
12:00 pm AEST Japan Nikkei previous 47.6
3:00 pm AEST India Nikkei previous 50.5
9:30 am BST UK street 49.6
8:55 am BST Germany street 52.4
8:50 am BST France street 48.3
8:15 am BST Spain street 52.5
8:45 am BST Italy street 53.0
7:30 am BST Sweden street 53.8
8:00 am BST Norway street 48.5
9:00 am BST Greece previous 49.7
8:00 am BST Poland street 51.8
9:30 am EDT Canada RBC previous 52.2
9:45 am EDT US Markit street 50.5
10:00 am EDT US ISM street 50.3
10:00 am EDT US ISM new orders previous 55.8