US election 2024: Harris vs Trump

How will the US election shake up the markets? Discover the key dates to watch and which instruments could be impacted.

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How elections can impact markets

Policy
Elections often bring shifts in government policies. Changes in spending and tax policies can either stimulate or weaken specific sectors or the entire market. For instance, one candidate might favour renewable energy, while another might support fossil fuels, creating different market outcomes.
Regulation
A change in power can mean a shift in the agenda for new regulations or the repeal of existing ones, impacting financial performance. Increased legislation can raise compliance costs, while deregulation can lower these costs and boost profitability for certain industries.
Geopolitics
A leadership change can reshape international relationships, trade agreements, and the status of conflicts. These shifts can significantly affect market performance, influencing both stability and investor confidence worldwide.
Volatility
Stock market volatility may increase around election time due to uncertainty about new government policies. This uncertainty can lead to financial and social instability. Markets often move in response to the anticipated outcome of an election, reflecting investor sentiment and speculation about future policies.

What are the major events that could impact the markets during the US Election?

27
Jun
Biden-Trump debate on CNN
Gain insights into the candidates' positions and public reactions to the debate.
15
Jul
Republican National Convention
Republican delegates select their nominees for president and vice president.
19
Aug
Democratic National Convention
Democratic delegates select their nominees for president and vice president.
10
Sep
Harris-Trump debate
Further understanding of candidates' positions and public reactions.
5
Nov
Election Day
Voting occurs, and the elected candidate is eventually determined. While projections can be made on election night, official results may take days to weeks.

Forex
The US election can significantly impact the USD and major currency pairs like EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/JPY. Interest rate policies, trade agreements, and fiscal measures may cause fluctuations in the USD's strength, influencing global currency markets.
Commodities
Gold and oil can be highly sensitive to US elections. Political uncertainty can boost gold's safe-haven appeal, while changes in energy policies and geopolitical stability may drive oil prices. These commodities often reflect investor sentiment and potential policy shifts.
Indices
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq can be influenced by election outcomes due to possible changes in corporate tax rates, regulatory environments, and economic growth policies. These factors may affect sector performance and overall market sentiment, impacting these key indices.
Equities
Volatility and policy changes can impact individual equities, creating winners and losers in sectors like technology, energy, and defense. Geopolitical conditions shape supply chains and trade, influencing market dynamics and affecting the growth potential and profitability of stocks.

Expert analysis
US election playbook
As the US election nears, traders and investors are preparing for market shifts. With key policies and geopolitical stances at stake, we asked the CMC team for insights on how this pivotal event could impact markets in both the short and long term.
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Explore sector impacts
Will EV shares bounce back?
Electric vehicle shares have faced recent challenges, but the upcoming US election could influence their direction. The results may impact regulations, subsidies, and market sentiment, introducing potential volatility to the EV sector.
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Market news
Stay informed and adjust positions
Keep informed of election developments and market reactions. Be prepared to adjust your positions based on new information. Staying informed can help you make timely decisions to protect your investments from unexpected shifts.
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