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What referendum?

European investors shrugged off the anti-establishment messages from the Italian referendum to drive share prices higher. PMI readings in the US and China added to risk appetites, and gold and bonds fell as stock markets rose. Oil pulled back from yearly highs, but a lift in copper prices may better illustrate the overall market mood.

Futures markets are pointing to gains across the region, with the resource exposed Australian share market a likely leader. A gain of around 1% looks like the opening bid, but large investors may move ahead of dwindling liquidity, making today’s outcome difficult to forecast. A further reduction in short sold positions may see the Australia 200 index beat futures traders’ expectations.

As the AGM season winds down local investors are left with the wildly disparate performance of sectors and individual stocks. The broad measures of the market are showing a gain of around 2% for the year, but individual stock volatility means investors with similar looking portfolios have very different returns. Attention now turns to the US Fed’s interest rate decision next week, the last listed major risk event for the year.

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