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Waiting for Trump

Waiting for Trump

US shares roared back to life, and safe havens slumped in overnight trading. US President Trump’s promise of a “dramatic” fiscal response to the drag of the Covid19 outbreak spurred a reversal of sentiment.

The announcement is due this morning. Multiple reports suggest pay-roll relief and support for select affected industries are central to the stimulus package. A comprehensive approach that indicates the White House is alive to the human and economic viral risks could soothe volatile markets. However if the promised response is delayed, denied or deemed inadequate, market chaos may follow.

European investors were unimpressed, and shares fell across the continent. This didn’t stop American investors lifting major US indices by almost 5%. Bonds markets were hit hard, with the US ten-year bond yield up an extraordinary 26 basis points. Crude oil prices recovered by around 9%, and gold edged lower.

The US dollar rallied, pushing USD/JPY back over 105 and the Euro below US $1.13. The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars fell, despite a recovery in commodity prices, and may play catch up during trading today.

Asia Pacific futures markets occupy the middle ground between European scepticism and American enthusiasm, although the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Australia 200 indices all finished the overnight session in the green. An announcement form the White House, or its absence, will likely drive regional markets today.

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