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Technical fundamentals - AUD/USD

When fundamentals and technicals line up I get excited. I love a "cluster" trade - a situation where a number of indicators all point in the same direction. Which brings us to AUD/USD.

This morning the ABS released its read of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2017. The numbers were weak. Growth for the period was a miserly 0.3%. On the face of it, this could lead to a lower AUD. However, AUD/USD rose in response. The driver of this seemingly counter-intuitive move was the market positioning in light of the component data released over the previous week.

The national accounts are the most complex statistics provided by the ABS. They are built on a lot of contributing factors. Many of these factors are released ahead of the GDP numbers, giving analysts a good guide. This time around, a particularly soft read on net exports had analysts furiously revising GDP estimates downward, with some forecasting a negative quarter. Naturally traders saw these lower estimates and moved markets to reflect a better chance of RBA interest rate cuts later this year. This in turn saw the AUD trade lower.

When the GDP dropped in line with the consensus forecast the interest rate markets immediately backed off. The AUD jumped as currency traders removed a risk discount applied in case the growth rate shocked markets.

Now have a look at the chart above. The downtrend is clearly broken. There is a double bottom formation. And the break above the recent  high could be the start of a new uptrend. A potential move towards 0.7750 is on the cards, although traders will watch closely at the 61.8% retracement level around 0.7590 for any signs of a pause.



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