The White House deferred the introduction of tariffs on $160 billion of goods overnight. Although some increases are still due on 1 September, the suspension of tariffs on consumer and electronic goods in the run up to Christmas saw investors pile back into shares. Oil and copper rose, and bonds and gold fell as markets rediscovered an appetite for growth assets.
The risk rally defied an above forecast increase in US inflation. The rise echoed a lift in China inflation last week. The co-ordinated upswing in inflation, while still modest, could trigger renewed attention on UK and French CPIs due this week. An accelerating uptrend in global prices severely reduces the ability of central banks to stimulate economies. Inflation may take over from the trade dispute as the key market driver if the upward pressure continues.
Asia Pacific futures markets are pointing to stronger opening gains. Morning session volumes may lighten given the release of China industrial production (forecast 6.0%, last 6.3%) and retail sales data (forecast 8.6%, last 9.8%) around midday.
Australian company reporting hits full stride today with nine Australia 200 index releases. Dexus property group may see unit price pressure after reporting a 26% fall in profits on lower revaluations. Packager Pact Group also reported a profit decline as write-downs pushed the bottom line to negative. On the other hand, Computershare and CSL both beat consensus forecasts. However analysts are waiting on Australia’s largest telco Telstra to reveal its result and flesh out its evolving strategy.