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FX analysis

Short-term FX Technical Strategy (26 Jul 2022)

foreign exchange

EUR/USD – Still oscillating within a short-term uptrend phase

(click to enlarge chart)

Key elements of EUR/USD remain positive to support the current short-term uptrend of its corrective rebound phase in place since the 14 July 2022 swing low of 0.9950.

No change, maintain bullish bias as highlighted in our prior report dated 21 July with 1.0100 remains as the key short-term pivotal support for a potential bullish breakout above 1.0270 towards the next intermediate resistance zone of 1.0350/1.0400 and a break above it may see a further rally to target 1.0440 next.

On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 1.0100 negates the bullish tone for a drop to retest the key medium-term support zone of 1.0000/0.9950.

GBP/USD – Maintain bullish bias, watch tightened key support at 1.1900

(click to enlarge chart)

GBP/USD has staged the expected push-up and almost hit the first resistance/target of 1.2095 as per highlighted in our prior report on 21 July (printed an intraday high of 1.2086 on 25 July).

Key elements remain positive to support its ongoing corrective rebound phase in pace since the 14 July 2022 swing low of 1.1760. Maintain bullish bias with a tightened key short-term pivotal support at 1.1900 for a further potential up move towards the next resistances of 1.2170 and 1.2240.

However, a break with an hourly close below 1.1900 negates the bullish tone for a slide to retest the 14 July 2022 swing low of 1.1760, and below it sees a further drop towards 1.1680/1650 next.

USD/JPY – Broke below 137.10, start of a potential multi-week corrective decline phase

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USD/JPY broke below the 137.10 key short-term pivotal support as per highlighted in our prior report on 21 July and invalidated the impulsive up move sequence scenario towards 140.10.

Key elements have turned negative; flip to a bearish bias below 136.80 as key short-term pivotal resistance for another round of potential decline to retest 135.95 before a further slide towards the next support at 135.00/134.70 (swing low areas of 1/6 July 2022 & a cluster of Fibonacci extension levels).

On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 136.80 revives the bullish tone a rally towards 138.70 in the first step.

AUD/USD – Broke above 0.6935, further potential up move validated

(click to enlarge chart)

AUD/USD has staged a bullish breakout above the upper limit of the neutrality range at 0.6935 as per highlighted in our prior report on 21 July.

Key elements advocate a continuation of the short-term uptrend within its corrective rebound phase in place since the 14 July 2022 swing low of 0.6681. Flip to a bullish bias above 0.6900 key short-term pivotal support for a further potential push up toward the next resistances at 0.7000 and 0.7090/7110 next.

However, a break with an hourly close below 0.6900 negates the bullish tone for a pull-back towards 0.6860, and failure to hold at this level triggers a further drop towards the next support zone of 0.6900/6780.

Time-stamped: 26 July 2022 at 10.15 am SGT

Source: CMC Markets


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