I'm on record as a gold bear - this has made me unpopular but profitable. The combination of a low inflation environment and markets adjusting to an inevitable withdrawal of stimulus to me means the longer term outlook for gold is poor. Over the next 12-18 months, I expect gold to reach a point somewhere between U$800 and U$1,000 an ounce. Naturally, gold is on the radar list for sell signals - and the charts suggest gold is a whisker away from a fall.

Gold - daily

20130807 gold

Source: CMC Next Generation trading platform

 The short term uptrend faded two weeks ago. Gold is now hovering just above support at U$1,275. The MACD is crossing at the zero line. I'm looking at a stop entry:

20130807 gold tkt

Although this is on my radar list, it was another chart that convinced me to check gold:

US Dollar Index - daily

20130807 DXY

Source: Bloomberg

The US dollar index may be basing at current levels. Any dollar strength from here could provide the spark for a sell off, and after an unusually quiet week for FX there may be a pick up in volatility soon.