This morning, a mystery chart was posted. If you haven't already seen this post, read it here before you read on:
Ok - what instrument is it? Is it a buy or sell?
Here are the results of the survey:
Neutral / Trade break 8
On the instrument, the nominees are : EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, Australia 200 and spot Silver.
Thanks to all who ventured their view, comments and opinions. Many of you correctly identified the chart as the Australia 200, daily:
To declare my bias - like the majority here, I also think this is a BUY. However, my view is not based on the chart, but on a fundamental view - high dividend yield, low Price/Earnings, low Price/Book, superior growth (last week's Q1 GDP +4.3% !!) and higher engagement with Asia, the growth engine for the globe. The false breaks on the chart (arrows) add to my view that we are likely to trade towards the top of range (4,365).
More importantly, does anyone change their view when the market is known? The sense I get is that more than half the market is bearish - yet when the chart is unlabelled, the analysis runs the other way.
I've called this a "glass half empty" investment environment, with negative sentiment dominating the positive numbers. If you change your view from BUY to SELL once you know its the Australia 200, you may want to consider the effects of sentiment.