Today’s wrap and technical outlook for indices, commodities and currencies from CMC’s head of analysis for North America, Colin Cieszynski
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 slumped back toward 5,200 and remains below a broken support line from a completed bearish rising wedge while RSI suggests momentum turning negative. Next support in a correction appears near 5,165 then 5,125.
Japan 225 continues to soar above 15,000 driving toward 15,180 with next potential resistance near 15,275 then 15,775 as it tries to catch up to the rising US30. It’s very overbought though and could turn on a dime.
HongKong43 has paused just above 23,000 with key support near 22,900 and resistance possible near 23,140 and 23,350.
India50 is breaking out today, clearing 6,100 to its highest level since late 2010. Next upside resistance appears near 6,260 then 6,400 on trend.
US30 broke out to another new high today trading above 15,300 at one point as it continues to gain on measured resistance remains near 15,400 with support emerging near the 15,150 breakout point.
SPX500 started off slow but broke out to a new high finishing the day near 1,655. Next measured resistance appears near 1,665 with support climbing toward 1,650.
UK and European indices
UK 100 has paused near 6,700 with RSI overbought but remains within striking distance of a retest of its 2007 double top peak near 6,750. Initial support in a correction appears near 6,600 then 6,550.
Germany30 touched a new high but essentially remains in consolidation mode between 8,250 and 8,380 as it works off an overbought RSI.
France 40 broke out to a new 52-week high as it takes a run at 4,000 with next resistance after that near 4,040 then 4,150. Support rises toward 3,950.
Italy 40 has broken out again, clearing 17,360 and rallying toward 17,500. This could set the stage for a retest of the 17,930 January high with initial resistance possible near 17.590 or 17,750.
Spain 35 popped up from 8,400 toward 8,500 but it really needs to clear 8,700 to call off an emerging downswing within a broad channel.
Gold is breaking down again, taking out $1,420 and $1,400 with next major support near $1,365 then $1.320.
Silver has broken down through $23.00 as it continues to slide toward the bottom of its $22.00 to $24.50 trading channel. RSI suggests that downward momentum continues to accelerate.
Copper broke $3.24 while RSI broke 50, confirming the start of a new downswing with next support near $3.17 and $3.10 and resistance falling toward $3.27.
US crude dropped under $93.00 and then popped back up above $94.00 to form a hammer candle but the lower low suggests it needs to clear $96.60 to call off a triple top with initial resistance near $95.50
UK crude broke out of a short term downtrend today, completed a bear trap below $102.00 and then blasting up toward a retest of key $104.00 Fibonacci resistance. Next key upside test appears near $105.80.
Gasoline has had a nice turnaround after dipping below $2.80 to clean out weak hands and driving toward $2.88 with next major resistance near $2.90 then $2.95.
Natural Gas broke out over $4.00 yesterday and remains above that level while RSI has retaken 50. This suggests a new upswing is underway with resistance near $4.20 but may need confirmation from tomorrow’s storage report.
NZDUSD has rallied up off of $0.8160 in what appears to be a normal technical bounce with RSI oversold. It would need to retake $0.8300 to call off the current downtrend with next support near $0.8050.
AUDUSD staged a nice bounce up off of $0.9850 toward $0.9900. With RSI oversold, further short term gains appear possible but it would need to clear par to suggest this is more than a normal correction within a larger downtrend.
USDJPY is looking exhausted here with a doji candle indicating supply and demand coming into balance while a negative RSI divergence suggesting upward momentum exhausted. Measured resistance appears near 103.00 with 101.00 or 100.00 testable.
AUDJPY remains stuck in neutral trading in the 100.00 to 102.00 range.
EURJPY has started to drift back from 132.80 toward a retest of its 131.00 breakout point with a growing negative RSI divergence suggesting uptrend running out of gas. Next support on a breakdown near 129.20 the 127.30.
USDSGD is breaking out again today, driving through $1.2440 toward $1.2470 with next major resistance on trend near $1.2525.