Trading today will likely reflect the particulars of specific financial markets, with no broad wave to drive action. Issues of global growth and interest rates move to the background as Britain’s Brexit process, US corporate reporting, Japanese retail sales and Australian inflation become key short term factors.
Market action itself is another likely influence. Gold is threatening to crack overhead resistance around US $1,310, indicating ongoing concern. However US ten year bond yields are closer to one month highs, and oil prices rallied more than 2%. Higher base metals add further support to the idea that investors are happier with growth prospects, but have concerns about suddenly emerging risk.
US shares revived from session lows, despite some weaker reports from China exposed tech companies. The fears were eased by Apple’s after market report that met forecasts and showed growth in all products other than iPhones. Asia Pacific indices are set for modest opening gains. In Australian the late morning release of fourth quarter CPI estimates are expected to show core inflation around 1.7% - 1.8%. Any divergence will likely move both the Australian dollar and local shares due to the data’s direct influence on RBA interest rate policy.
The British pound is in focus after a series of votes in parliament. PM May has a mandate to return to negotiations with the EU to seek variation on the Irish border issues, although policy makers declined to formally endorse a no-deal Brexit. The Pound is trading around 1 5 US cents below a recent peak near US $1.32.