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Jobs and Central Banks

The US Federal Reserve declined to lift interest rates at this month’s meeting, explicitly adding to investor fears around a potential Brexit. Market reactions are modestly negative. Australian shares may come under additional pressure after oil fell, but a Bank of Japan rate decision and local jobs numbers may see the market change direction a number of times over the session.

US Fed Chair, Yellen stressed that July is a live meeting for the Fed, deferring rather than cancelling expectations. Coming ahead of today’s BoJ meeting, some analysts suggest this adds to the pressure on Governor Kuroda to further stimulate today. Clearly some possibility of stimulus is reflected in recent market action, and a failure to move could see disappointment selling across the Asia Pacific region.

Australian jobs are forecast to increase by 15,000 for the month of May, with unemployment steady at 5.7% on an increase in participation. However the wildly volatile nature of this data series means traders are preparing for all possibilities.

Fund managers are currently focussed on the liquidity event spawned by the expiry of the June SPI futures contract yesterday. Huge volumes are expected at today’s opening as professional investors convert some of their futures positions into stock portfolio. 

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