Technical analysis - voodoo or a short cut to trading success?
Try this quick quiz:
The following is a daily chart. Consider the indicators. The black arrow is pointing to a three candle formation. Although this is not a perfect "morning star", it is is very similar in that there is a strong down day, a day of indecision (the star or doji), and then a strong up day. It may be a reversal signal. The MACD uses the standard 12,26,9 configuration. It has clearly crossed, well below the zero line, and the widening gap between the MACD lines suggests increasing upward momentum:
So, is this chart a buy?
Buy right now, or wait for trading up through the (green) resistance line?
Or is it a sell?
These are important questions to answer, especially ahead of the US Fed meeting this week, and the potential for the first US rate rise in many years. As an exercise, decide where you stand before you scroll down. Here's a picture of a preposterously cute cat to give you time to think:
Yes, I'm not a cat person either.
Did you say buy?
As many have already guessed, this is the daily chart of AUD/USD. For mine, the technical picture is pretty clear - I'm a buyer on any breach of the overhead resistance (which btw, is at 0.7180). However, this appears to directly contradict the fundamentals. Lower commodity prices and a potential US rate rise should lead to a lower AUD/USD.
Which do you go with, technicals or fundamentals?
Let us know which, and your reasons, in the comments box below.