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ICYMI - the chart of 2017

"One chart to set the call, and in the Trumpness drive them"

(With apologies to JRR Tolkien).

Global makets are interconnected. The flap of a mandarin's sleeve in Shanghai can cause a tornado in Chicago. FX traders pay close attention to action in bond markets, share traders watch commodities, gold traders monitor the USD, and all are subject to the international 24 hour a day nature of markets.

And the largest and most influential market in the world is currently sending a strong signal - making it the most important chart of 2017.

The market is of course EUR/USD. Trading in December 2016 pushed the pair below its 13 year low at 1.0463. The monthly chart above shows the significance of the move. Although the follow through since the breach on December 15 is unimpressive, the breakdown is clear. For chartists, the direction for EUR/USD is down until proven otherwise (possibly by a move up through 1.0463).

This fits easily with the fundamental picture of a strengthening US economy under the new president. Higher growth means higher interest rates, pushing the USD higher (and EUR/USD lower). Some analysts are arguing the Trump factor is already priced by markets, but the EUR/USD chart could be saying there are significant further moves to come.

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