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Growth rally

Better than forecast growth data in China, the US and the UK pushed investors back into shares overnight. Crude oil led industrial commodities higher and bonds sank as markets moved back from fears of a global slowdown. With more influential data releases and the resumption of China / US trade talks on the agenda this week it appears the risk of underinvestment is top of mind. Currency markets remain calm with a pro-US dollar tilt.

China manufacturing PMIs started the sentiment shift. Both the official and Caixin reads showed expansion, in contrast to the contractions revealed last week in Europe. The UK read leapt from 52 to above 55, adding to the notion that European manufacturing in March was replaced rather than destroyed. ISM employment and prices data in the US was even more robust, adding fuel to the market fire.

Although the rally started in the Asia Pacific region yesterday futures markets indicate a further surge at today’s openings. In Australia investors face an RBA decision (f/c no change) this afternoon and the release of the Federal budget tonight. Much of the detail is already in the public domain. Any surprises could be discounted by the fact an election is likely next month.

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