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Fed Up - USD/SGD Double Topping Out

Fed Up - USD/SGD Double Topping Out

Fed chair Yellen spoke overnight. In re-iterating the case for a rate lift, she attempted to reverse the unintentional damage done by the signalling components of last weeks’ unchanged rate decision and accompanying statement. Her assurances saw USD strength return, and in the lead up to the speech, and in the hours following, the USD made big figure gains against the EUR and JPY.

The problem from a trading point of view is that the USD is essentially tracking sideways against the other two (look them up yourself Larry Loungelizard). There’s little in the way of technical triggers to play USD strength.

Flicking through the crosses, there’s a chart that stands out – USD/SGD. The pair is at five year highs (USD lows). There is a double top formation, respecting big figure resistance at 1.4300. The resistance point coincides with a Bollinger Band touch and reversion. Any one of these three factors might signal a sell trade – the combination of the three sets bells ringing.

20150925 usdsgd

Selling at current levels, with a stop loss clear of 1.4300 (say 1.4322), traders may consider a number of targets. The BB reversion suggests a point around 1.4125, but given the double top some will look for a pullback to the September lows around 1.3900.

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