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Fading the Fed

The statement after the last FOMC meeting noted that “near term risks to the economic outlook have diminished. There have been a few patchy data releases since then but nothing to really alter the medium term outlook.

Tonight will see release of the more detailed minutes on the last FOMC meeting. Traders will be looking for more detail on whether these diminished risks might translate into a Fed rate hike later this year. That could be bullish US Dollar (bearish EURUSD).

The EURUSD chart has developed a trend line “point of control”.  It has so far acted as support 3 times and resistance once.  Yesterday’s candle peaked neatly at this trend line again. For good measure this is also an AB=CD level where the latest CD swing is the same size as the AB swing.

Shorter term charts might provide an indication that this point of control is being rejected again. The 4 hour chart has made a peak below the upper Bollinger Band which is encouraging.  This might be confirmed by the 4 hour chart being below  support and making lower lows after release of the FOMC minutes at 4 am AEST



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