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FX Analysis

EUR/USD trend break

EUR/USD is threatening a trend break - upwards.

There's debate about where the current down trend starts. Some traders will argue it begins at the January peak (blue line). However the April low is above the March low, breaching the technical definition of a down trend, meaning others will draw the trend line from the March peak (black line). This illustrates that there is art as well as science in technical analysis.

Depending on viewpoint, the down trend is either broken, or potentially about to break. A positive outlook is supported by the MACD. It diverges from the lows in each month since February, refusing to make corresponding lower lows. This bullish divergence, combined with a cross below the zero line and (possible) breach of the trend line make a bullish case for EUR/USD.

Some may see this as in line with fundamentals. The introduction of higher tariffs on China goods by the US is likely to slow both major economies. While growth in Europe is hardly stellar, its steady state may see the EUR outperform the USD. A move over 1.1300 would flesh the emerging technical buy picture.

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