I'm still fundamentally a EUR/USD bear. The US has superior growth, and is likely to curtail stimulus sooner. This should see a stronger USD, and a lower EUR/USD. Instead, the pair is on the rise - now at a level where I'm comfortable to short again.....but is it a bear trap?
Here's the daily chart:
1.3400 is an important level in EUR/USD, although not precisely. Nonetheless, a potential move back towards 1.3200 may offer a reasonable risk reward profile. Further falls from that level could bring the longer term support between 1.2800 and 1.2850 into play.The MACD is flat-lining - any falls from here should see it cross, and may spark further technical selling.
Note the previous false breaks of the resistance (and the "real" one in Jan/Feb). The most recent spurts through 1.3400 hit 1.3452 and 1.3428. The two before peaked around 1.3418. This make setting stop loss orders problematic. One approach is to trade two orders on different time frames - an aggressive, short term trade with tight stop loss, and a longer term swing trade that looks for deeper falls and gives the trade more room: