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Chart Signals: USD rebound impacts commodity and currency prices

Chart Signals: USD rebound impacts commodity and currency prices

A rebound for USD to start the week has had a big impact on energy and metal prices, sending WTI and gold lower. This has carried through into currency markets with NZD breaking down and AUD continuing to fall. JPY is dropping relative to USD, EUR and CAD under threat of government forex intervention, which has helped to light a fire under Japan 225.

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 is bumping up against 5,335 Fibonacci resistance and looking vulnerable to a correction with a negative RSI divergence growing to indicate slowing upward momentum. Next potential support near 5,300 then 5,260 and 5,185.

Japan 225 has embarked on a new upswing signalled by a breakout over 16,255 a Fibonacci level that has become new support. Next upside resistance tests possible near the 50-day average near 16,650 then 16,800. RSI gaining on 50 confirms an upturn in momentum pending.

Hong Kong 50 is retesting 20,000 round number support again having dropped back under 20,200 near a Fibonacci level. RSI nearing oversold so a bounce possible but if the index breaks down next support may appear near 19,695.

India 50 has resumed its uptrend breaking out over 7,750 and driving on toward 7,880 with next potential resistance in the 8,000-8,080 zone between a round number and Fibonacci level.

North American and European Indices

US 30 bounced up off of its 50-day average near 17,550 Friday and continues to advance today, trading near 17,740 with next potential resistance near 17,800 then 17,910. RSI peeking back above 50 signals the end of the recent trading correction.

US NDAQ 100 has climbed up through 4,345 a Fibonacci level, advancing on 4,360 but still trading well short of its 50 and 200-day averages near 4,415.

US SPX 500 is consolidating Friday’s big bounce up off of 2,040 near 2,060 a Fibonacci level with next upside resistance possible near 2,085 then the 2,100 round number. Support rises toward 2,055

UK 100 is holding steady above 6,100 near 6,130 but still needs to get back above its 50 and 200-day averages near 6,200 to call off its current downtrend.

Germany 30 has turned back upward, rallying toward10,060 then dropping back to retest 10,000 as higher support with more near 9,970. Next resistance possible near 10,125 then 10,345. RSI regaining 50 confirms momentum turning back upward again.


Gold is tumbling down from a lower high near $1,294 which was short of $1,300 round number resistance, down through $1,284 and on toward $1,264 with next potential support near $1,250. RSI rolling over again indicates bounce momentum fading and a downturn approaching.

Crude Oil WTI has been knocked back down under $43.75 falling on toward $42.80 with the bottom falling out after crude failed to break through $45.00 resistance again. RSI dropping toward 50 indicates upward momentum weakening and a downturn pending. Next potential support near $42.55 then $41.25.


US Dollar Index keeps creeping higher, trading up toward 94.00 as a 92.00 to 95.00 trading channel continues to emerge.

EURUSD has levelled of near $1.1400 setting a higher low on trend near $1.1380 following a correction back from $1.1600. RSI holding 50 indicates underlying uptrend remains intact for now.

NZDUSD is breaking down today, taking out uptrend and moving average support near $0.6800 to signal the start of a new downtrend. Falling toward $0.6770 initially, next potential support appears near $0.6755 then $0.6665.

AUDUSD keeps driving downward, taking out $0.7390 and falling toward $0.7210 with next potential support at the 200-day average near $0.7265 then $0.7100. RSI indicates downward pressure increasing.

USDCNH is breaking out today, clearing 6.5285 a Fibonacci level to complete a base and signal the start of a new uptrend. Recently trading near 6.5360 with next potential resistance near 6.5660 and 6.5780.

USDSGD is breaking out today, clearing its 50-day average and $1.3600 to signal the start of a new upswing then driving through a prior high near $1.3660 and on toward $1.3710 with next resistance possible near $1.3740 then $1.3860.

USDJPY continues to rebound, driving up off a higher low near 107.00 through initial resistance near 108.00 and on toward 108.50 with next potential resistance near 109.50 then a Fibonacci test near 110.50. RSI indicates downward pressure fading and an upturn pending.

EURJPY is starting a new upswing clearing 123.00 to complete a base then advancing on 123.40 with next resistance possible near 123.70 then the 50-day average near 124.80 and the 125.00 round number. RSI gaining on 50 indicates downward pressure easing.

CADJPY continues to bounce up off of 82.50 Fibonacci support rallying toward 83.70 with next potential resistance near 84.55 then the 50-day average near 85.30. RSI finding support near 40 indicates downward momentum levelling off.

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