Here is today’s wrap and chart signals
Index Chart Signals
US 30: Yesterday’s large green candle moved strongly above minor gap resistance leaving the short term up trend intact. The RSI is heading up above the 50% zone indication potential for further gains. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level around 18031 may provide initial resistance. Above that is the 23 June peak at 18,189. The 200 day moving average now provides potential support around 17,735.
Germany 30: Broke above trend channel resistance yesterday and the uptrend remains intact on the daily chart. The RSI also continues to trend higher above 50 in a positive move. Yesterday’s rally was all in the first hour of trading. The hourly chart has formed a potential flag formation. A break through the flag resistance could indicate that the uptrend is set to continue. The 23 June peak at 11,636 provides potential near term resistance and above that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 11,731. The bottom of Friday’s gap at 11,147 provides potential support. A quick move below this support to fill the gap would be short term bearish indicating exhaustion and potential for a deeper correction.
Australia 200: Continues in volatile range between 5382 and 5611. A break above resistance at 5611 and the 200 day moving average would be a positive development. This would see the 14 day RSI tracking north above 50. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level might provide initial resistance above this level at 5,636. Yesterday’s low at 5448 provides initial support.
Forex Chart Signals
AUDUSD: The move below Friday’s low means the short term trend has changed to a down. A break below last week’s low at .7372 would suggest that the major downtrend is back under way. Last week’s high at .7497 now provides initial resistance.
EURUSD: With Friday’s low taken out, the daily candles are again making lower lows and lower highs meaning the short term trend is down. The 14 period RSI has also failed at the 50% level resistance and is heading down again in a sign of potential weakness. The next test will be last week’s low at 1.0916. However, with downward momentum now intact, a test of the late May low at 1.0819 and an AB=CD level just below that at 1.0777 is also in sight.
Commodity Chart Signals
Crude Oil WTI: The short term downtrend remains intact and the RSI is again trending down below 50%. However, price did bounce neatly off the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level around $51.16 last night and this is now confirmed as support. A break below $51.16 could see the previous low at $50.20 tested. $50.20 also represents a possible AB=CD pattern. Last night’s high at $53.08 now provides resistance.
Gold: Just like oil, gold is now in a short term downtrend in the daily time frame but bounced neatly off the 78.6% retracement at 1151.17 last night. This now provides support and a break below this level would be a sign of ongoing weakness with potential for a test of (or break below) the previous low at 1147. The recent peak on the hourly chart provides initial resistance at $1159.46.