Here is today’s wrap and chart signals
Index Chart Signals
US 30: The short term up trend remains intact with daily candles continuing to make higher lows and higher highs. However price continues to show signs of stalling at a trend line drawn across the peaks of 19 May and 23 June. IF price fails at this level it would be confirmed as short term resistance. The RSI is above the 50% zone but is tracking sideways suggesting potential either a pause in the uptrend or a pull back. The 200 day moving average provides potential support around 17,735.
Germany 30: The uptrend remains intact on the daily chart but momentum has slowed as demonstrated by yesterday’s Doji candle. As with the US 30, the 14 period RSI remains above 50 but is currently tracking sideways indicating potential for a sideways pause or a full blown pull back. The 23 June peak at 11,636 provides potential near term resistance and above that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 11,731. The bottom of last Friday’s gap at 11,147 provides potential support.
Australia 200: Yesterday saw a clear break out of the recent trading range and above the 200 day moving average. The daily trend remains up. However, price has now arrived at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement for the downtrend that began in late June. A clear break above this would be another sign of strength but failure could see the beginning of another leg lower in the big picture choppy downtrend that’s been in place since early June. This 14 day RSI is now tracking north above 50% in a positive development. The 24 June peak at 5705 is the next resistance after the current 78.6% retracement level. The first significant support on the hourly chart looks to be around 5616.
Hong Kong H Shares: Yesterday the daily candle made a lower low confirming a short term downtrend. The 14 day RSI is again tracking lower towards the oversold zone below 30%. This creates potential for a pullback and correction of the recent rally. Yesterday’s low stopped neatly at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. However, unless the recent high is taken out, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 11,237 and the 78.6% at 11.005 may be levels to watch. The previous low at 10,711 represents support and a break below that would see resumption of the big picture downtrend. Monday’s high and the 200 day moving average now represent initial resistance to the upside around 12,089/12,160.
Forex Chart Signals
AUDUSD has moved narrowly below support at .7372.A move below yesterday’s low at .7354 would see the daily candles making lower lows, confirming a short term downtrend. The 14 period RSI continues to track along the oversold zone around 30%. If the downtrend gets under way, the area around .7325/.7285 may be a potential turning point. This sees the intersection of a downward sloping tend line and an AB = CD pattern as shown on the chart below. Recent peaks around .7490 represent potential resistance.
EURUSD: The daily candles are still making lower lows and lower highs meaning the short term trend is down. The RSI is also heading lower below 50% indicating potential for lower prices. The next test will be last week’s low at 1.0916. However, a test of the late May low at 1.0819 and an AB=CD level just below that at 1.0777 is also in sight. Last Friday’s high and the 50 day moving average provide resistance around 1.1160/1.1216
Commodity Chart Signals
Crude Oil WTI: Yet another reversal sees the hourly chart back in a downtrend. Recent range trading behaviour is now starting to look very like a triangle pattern is forming. A rejection of support around $51 would confirm the triangle theory creating potential for a return to the resistance line around $53.25. However, a move below these levels could set up for a test of recent lows and an AB=CD pattern around $50.44
Gold: Gold continues in a short term downtrend in the daily time frame and has now moved below the previous low at 1147. The RSI continues to track lower indicating downward momentum. Last night’s low bounced off the potential support of the March low at 1143. However, daily candles would need to show signs of a trend change by moving past yesterday’s high at $1157 to indicate that this support is being rejected. In the big picture, a decline to potential wedge support around $1090 looks possible over the medium term.