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Chart Signals: Resource Dollars under pressure, US stocks under distribution

Friday saw a big selloff in CAD but all of the resource Dollars have gone into retreat with AUD and NZD also breaking down. SGD for that matter also is weakening with USDSGD attempting to challenge $1.4000. Indices, particularly in the US, Hong Kong and Australia appear to be rolling downward with traders seeing strong earnings reports as an opportunity to take profits and distribute shares from strong hands to weaker ones. 

Asia Pacific indices

Australia 200 is traidng near its 50-day average near 5,425 but increasingly looks like its rolling over with resistance falling toward 5,440 and RSI slipping back under 50 confirming the downturn. Next potential support appears near 5,370 then 5,300.  

Hong Kong 50 increasingly looks like it has come under distribution with the index stalling near 23,405 a Fibonacci level. Meanwhile 50 on the RSI has become resistance confirming a downturn in momentum. Next potential support near the 23,000 round number. 

Japan 225 met some resistance near 17,280 but remains under accumulation digesting its big breakout over 17,000 near 17,250 with support rising toward 17,115. Rising RSI confirms increasing upward momentum.  

North American and European Indices

US 30 keeps steadily drifting lower within its 18,000 to 18,360 trading range with lower highs and RSI stuck below 50 indicating continued distribution. Index has recently been bouncing around between 18,120 and 18,170 with next support possible near 18,055.  

US NDAQ 100 is holding steady near 4,850 above its 50-day average near 4,800 but it remains vulnerable with resistance falling to a lower level and lower highs in the RSI indicating upward momentum fading and a downturn pending. 

US SPX 500 remains under distribution, still stuck below 2,150 where it broke the rising neckline of a head and shoulders top, and drifting toward 2,135 with next potential support where a round number, 23% Fibonacci retracement and the flat neckline all converge. RSI under 50 and falling confirms downward pressure increasing.  

UK 100 continues to climb, rising from near 7,030 toward 7,060 as it continues to consolidate recent gains between 6,925 and 7,110 in what looks like a normal rest stop within an ongoing uptrend. 

Germany 30 has paused near 10,720, just over halfway between the 10,600 level it rallied up off of Thursday, and 10,800 double top resistance. RSI holding above 50 indicates neutral to slightly upward momentum. Initial resistance near 10,765. Support rises toward 10,650.


Gold is sending mixed signals having slipped back under its 200-day avergage but still in an uptrend of higher lows above $1,260 support. Next resistance near $1.272 then a Fibonacci cluster near $1,282. RSI gaining on 50 indicates a trading bounce underway. 

Crude Oil WTI continues to consolidate recent gains in the $49.00 to $51.30 range, recently climbing from near $50.00 toward $50.70. RSI indicates upward momentum levelling off but underlying accumulation trend intact for now. 


US Dollar Index broke out Friday, clearing 98.30 and advancing on 98.50 with next potential resistance near a measured 98.70. An overbought RSI and a negative divergence suggest rally may be getting overdone and a correction possible. 

EURUSD is breaking down again, taking out $1.0900 and retesting it as new lower resistance. RSI is getting oversold so a bear trap reversal possible with bounce resistance in the $1.0930 to $1.0950 area but if downward pressure continues next support doesn’t appear until closer to $1.0815.  

GBPUSD is still trying to stabilize in the $1.2100 to $1.2400 recently drifting back from $1.2250 toward $1.2210. RSI suggests downward pressure and oversold conditions starting to ease. 

NZDUSD has resumed its downtrend with the pair breaking down under $0.7195 and falling toward $0.7160 with next potential support near $0.7125 then $0.7080. RSI failing near 50 and falling confirms downtrend resuming.  

AUDUSD continues to fall back having faltered at $0.7725 and 60 on the RSI both tops of trading channels. RSI is now back under 50 signalling a downturn while the pair is testing $0.7600 and its 50-day average. Next downside support possible near the $0.7500 round number. 

USDSGD continues to mount an assault on the $1.4000 round number, trading above $1.3900 in the $1.3940 to $1.3960 range. RSI overbought suggest resistance could emerge and a correction possible.  

USDJPY is still drifting between 103.00 and 104.50 recently near 103.80. RSI rolling over suggests upward momentum may have peaked already. Next potential support at the 50-day average near 102.10. 

GBPJPY continues to build a base in the 124.70 to 128.70 range recently trading between 126.80 and 127.20. RSI indicates downward pressure starting to ease.
EURJPY is rolling downward again, taking out 113.00 and retesting it as lower resistance with next potential downside support near 112.45 then 111.95. RSI under 50 and falling confirms downward momentum accelerating. 

USDCAD has a big breakout to the upside underway, clearing $1.3310 a Fibonacci level to complete a big ascending triangle base. RSI needs to clear 60 to confirm but overall upward momentum is increasing with next potential resistance near $1.3415 then the $1.3500 round number.  

USDMXN is holding above 18.56 the 38% Fibonacci retracement of its previous uptrend. A bounce off the 200-day average and a bullish reversal suggest the recent downswing may be over but RSI still needs to confirm change in momentum. Next resistance possible at the 50-day average near 18.95. 

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