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Chart Signals: Oil turns downward, JPY rallies, stocks continue base building

Chart Signals: Oil turns downward, JPY rallies, stocks continue base building

WTI crude oil continues to encounter significant resistance and has fallen back again. Like many other markets, however, it continues to hold well above recent lows. Trading today has been mixed but overall charts continue to suggest that many markets have stopped going down even if they aren’t ready to break out yet. In currency action, JPY has started to strengthen broadly again, posting gains against USD, EUR and CAD.

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 continues to rally up off of 4,700 currently trading near 4,900 but it really needs to overcome resistance near 5,000 a round number, Fibonacci test and prior high to call off the recent downtrend. RSI testing 50 suggests an upturn pending.

Japan 225 is bouncing around between 15.770 and 15,930 having failed to hold above 16,000 on an initial breakout attempt that faltered short of 16,500 resistance. RSI suggests downward pressure easing, but it may need to consolidate in the near term.

Hong Kong 50 shot up toward 19,250 but was pounded back down toward 19,000 indicating the bears have not been fully defeated yet. Still, a higher low on trend suggests continued accumulation. RSI needs to retake 50 to confirm an upturn.

India 50 has turned downward again after another rebound attempt failed, this time near 7,200. Having fallen from near 7,130 toward the 7.030 to 7.055 area, a retest of the 7,000 and maybe even a drop under it to test support appears possible.


North American and European Indices

US 30 has encountered resistance near 16,200 but has established higher support near 16,130 above the 16,000-16,030 previous support zone. Next resistance possible near 16,475 a Fibonacci level. RSI still needs to retake 50 to confirm momentum turning upward.

US NDAQ 100 continues to rebound, rallying up into the 4,070 to 4,100 area to complete a 23% retracement of its recent downtrend. RSI indicates downward pressure easing. Next upside resistance test possible in the 4,200-4,225 area.

US SPX 500 has paused near 1,890 and 50 on the RSI just short of 1,900. A breakout from here would confirm the recent double bottom and signal the start of a recovery trend with next resistance near 1,940 a Fibonacci level and recent peak. Support rises toward 1,880.

Germany 30 continues to consolidate in the 9,080 to 9,180 range building on its recent breakout over 9,000. Next resistance possible near 9,260 then 9,345 a 23% retracement of its recent downtrend.

UK 100 continues to recover, breaking through 5,855 and 50 on the RSI to confirm the start of a new uptrend and then advancing on the 5,880 to 5,900 area. Support rises toward 5,830 with next resistance near 5,960 a Fibonacci test then the 6,000 round number.


Gold bounced up from $1,190 toward $1,215 then fell back toward $1,200 level where some support has emerged after a correction down from $1,265. RSI still overbought so it could need to correct further or pause to digest recent moves in both directions.

Crude Oil WTI is falling again after failing to hold above $30.00 dropping back into the $28.50 to $29.20 area. It continues to hold well above its $26.60 double bottom but RSI failing at 50 suggests downtrend may be resuming.


US Dollar Index is having an inside day near 96.60 digesting yesterday’s rally back above 96.00 with resistance emerging at a lower high near 96.90.

EURUSD has stabilized near $1.1140 near the bottom of an emerging $1.1111 to $1.1255 Fibonacci trading channel after being knocked back from $1.1380 over the last three days. More support at the 200-day near $1.1060. RSI still above 50 indicates underlying uptrend intact through the current correction.

NZDUSD is getting pounded today diving from its 200-day average near $0.6685 down toward a retest of $0.6550-$0.6560 and a retest of its recent breakout point. RSI falling back under 50 suggests momentum turning downward. Next potential support near $0.6500 then $0.6460 on a downturn.

AUDUSD is holding steady near the middle of its $0.6900 to $0.7400 trading channel trading near $0.1700 having been knocked back from $0.7150 with next resistance near $0.7245 and holding well above $0.7000.

USDCNH has bounced back up toward 6.5250 following a bear trap washout below 6.5000 that confirmed round number support near there. Next resistance near 6.51270 then 6.5325 a Fibonacci level with more support near 6.4880.

USDJPY has started to turn downward again after confirming 115.00 as lower round number resistance. The pair has dropped into the 113.60 to 114.00 area with next potential support near 113.25 then 112.35.

EURJPY continues to trend downward with 128.00 emerging as new lower resistance and the pair falling back into the 126.70 to 127.00 area with a retest of 126.20 possible and next potential support on a breakdown near the 125.00 round number.

CADJPY is bouncing between 81.80 and 83.60 around 82.45 a 23% retracement of its recent downtrend. A failure of the RSI to retake 50 and of the pair to hold above 83.00 suggests downtrend resuming.

USDSGD has regained $1.4000 as it continued to bounce up off of $1.3890 channel support. RSI gaining on 50 indicates downward pressure easing. Next potential resistance in the $1.4090 to $1.4120 area.

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