Stock markets have been staging relief rallies today which appears to be encouraging but round number tests at 20,000 for the Hong Kong 50 and 5,000 for the Australia 200 may be the most telling. Similarly, WTI crude has a big support test underway at the $30.00 level.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 has started to turn upward out of higher lows for the index and the RSI rallying up from 4,910 toward 4,960. It still faces a significant hurdle at the 5,000 round number which it needs to clear to confirm an upswing.
Japan 225 continues to attract support above 17,00 trading in the 17,080 to 17580 range with support moving up toward 17,340 and initial resistance near 17,460. RSI still oversold suggesting a trading bounce possible in the near term.
Hong Kong 50 is challenging its 20,000 breakdown point having rallied up from 19,700 support. This test could end in a confirmation or rejection of the recent breakdown. If that round number is regained next potential resistance may appear near 20,580. If not, look out below…
India 50 is still hanging around near 7,500 trying to decide whether to go on another downleg or to bounce back. Currently trading bet5ween 7,480 and 7,520 with next potential resistance near 7,620.
North American and European Indices
US 30 bottomed at a higher low overnight near 16,270 has bounced up toward. Upside resistance has emerged near 16,600 then 16,500 with support rising toward 16,315. A trading channel could emerge around 16,475 a Fibonacci level.
US NDAQ 100 has rallied up off a higher overnight low near 4,245 into the 4,300 to 4,320 area around 4,310 a Fibonacci level with next resistance possible near 4,350. RSI signals a trading bounce underway.
US SPX 500 continues to attract support above 1,900 and has risen to challenge 1,940 a Fibonacci level where it has struggled trading as high as 1,948 recently. A decisive breakout would signal the start of a new upswing with next potential resistance near 1,975. RSI remains oversold suggesting recent selloff may have been overdone.
Germany 30 has settled near 10,000 level after a rally up from 9,800 ran into resistance near 10,100. Support has moved up toward 9,940 with next upside resistance possible near 10,125. RSI suggests downward pressure starting to ease. A close above 10,000 needed to confirm an upturn.
UK 100 bounced up from 5,870 toward 5,970 where it has ran into resistance short of the 6,000 round number it needs to clear to confirm the start of a new upswing before drifting back toward 5,900 where higher support has emerged. RSI climbing off a higher low indicates downward pressure weakening.
Gold has dropped back under $1,100 but remains supported above its $1,086 recent breakout point, trading near $1,090 as it consolidates its recent breakout from a head and shoulders base.
Crude Oil WTI is testing the $30.00 round number having dipped down toward $29.70 before quickly bouncing back, a potential bear trap bottom. A doji candle suggests bears may be losing their grip on the market after six straight days of losses while an oversold RSI indicates potential for a trading bounce but downtrend remains intact for now.
US Dollar Index continues to trend sideways between 98.00 and 99.50 confirmed by RSI sitting on 50. It continues to show signs of peaking below the 100.00 round number.
EURUSD has drifted back into the lower half of its $1.0800 to $1.1000 trading range, but RSI sitting on 50 indicates that the current sideways consolidation trend remains intact.
NZDUSD has stabilized near $0.6500 for now, potentially setting a higher low and bouncing back up toward $0.6540 but it still faces significant resistance near $0.6600 then $0.6665 with next downside support near $0.6440.
AUDUSD has levelled off just below the $0.7000 round number with support in the $0.6940 to $0.6970 area and next potential resistance near $0.7090.
USDCNH has broken down through 6.6090 its previous breakout point, signalling the start of a new downturn with next potential Fibonacci support near 6.5325 a 38% retracement of the uptrend that started last August. RSI falling toward 50 indicates a downturn pending.
USDJPY has levelled off between 117.40 and 118.10 consolidating recent losses following a bear trap reversal, pausing to work off an oversold RSI.
EURJPY is trading near 127.50 in a 126.80 to 129.00 range. A symmetrical triangle of higher lows and lower highs emerging indicates a pause within an ongoing downtrend to digest recent losses.
CADJPY is getting hammered again, taking out 82.50 to confirm continued distribution and trading toward 82.10 with next measured support possible near 81.60. RSI really oversold indicates potential for a snap back bounce at some point but it remains hard to figure out when.
USDSGD continues to form a rounded top with resistance dropping back toward $1.4400 from $1.4445 while support appears near $1.4325 then $1.4275. RSI suggests a downward correction may be starting.